Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V (AERO) Stock Analysis

Grupo Aeroméxico is Mexico’s flagship full-service airline, earning revenue from scheduled passenger service, cargo, and loyalty-linked products across domestic, transborder, and long-haul routes. Its 169-aircraft network is anchored at Mexico City International Airport, where its leading slot portfolio and immunized Delta joint venture differentiate it from domestic ULCCs and international peers. Premium cabins now account for a record 43% of passenger sales. In 2Q26, revenue increased 12.6% year over year to $1.479 billion, but jet fuel expense surged 79.9% to $493.8 million, contributing to -$0.40 EPS; TRASM nevertheless rose 10.5% to 16.0 cents. Preliminary 3Q26 revenue was $1.600 billion, up 12%, with a 12.0% operating margin. Management reaffirmed FY26 revenue growth of 13–14% ($5.77–$5.88 billion) and an 11–13% operating margin. At $15.98, shares imply approximately 3.2x EV/EBITDAR and over 26% FCF yield, with valuation offering meaningful upside if fuel normalizes. **Nearshoring, premium mix, and Delta-backed network economics are the central growth drivers; fuel volatility is the key near-term counterweight.** Catalysts include fuel stabilization, buybacks, and sustained corporate travel demand.