Forafric Global combines a 20% share of Moroccan milling capacity with a speculative defense pivot, but heavy debt, falling sales and a going-concern warning make the equity a distressed, dilution-prone turnaround.
Overview
Forafric Global PLC is a Gibraltar-domiciled, vertically integrated agribusiness whose Moroccan operations mill soft and durum wheat, manage bulk logistics and produce packaged pasta and couscous. Its MayMouna and Tria brands, export reach across more than 45 countries, and approximately 20% share of Moroccan milling capacity provide scale and local relevance in a staple-food market consuming more than 7 million metric tons of wheat annually. **The operating trajectory is distressed:** revenue fell from $305.5 million in FY2023 to $176.5 million in FY2025, down 35.6% year over year, while 1H 2025 sales declined 47.1% to $87.4 million. FY2025 net loss narrowed to $13.2 million from $24.3 million in FY2024, but gross margin remained 10.4%. The balance sheet is the central constraint: $153.01 million of debt against $14.31 million of cash, with an auditor going-concern warning. At about $11.64 per share, equity capitalization is approximately $313 million and EV approximately $451.83 million; the report calculates a 2.56x EV/revenue multiple on FY2025 sales despite losses. **Near-term catalysts are debt restructuring and the proposed AL NASR defense acquisition**, but the LOI is unclosed and related-party. The five-year probability-weighted share value is $5.33, below the current price.