A €100bn backlog leader in green rail mobility—priced like a turnaround because execution, cash conversion and credibility broke.
Overview
Alstom is the leading Western end-to-end rail supplier post its 2021 Bombardier Transportation acquisition, with four pillars—Rolling Stock, Signaling, Services and Systems—spanning the full rail lifecycle. Commercial momentum is exceptionally strong: FY25/26 delivered record order intake (€27.6bn) and lifted backlog beyond €100bn, providing rare multi-year revenue visibility from predominantly sovereign/municipal customers. Operationally, however, execution is fragile. Preliminary FY25/26 results showed organic sales growth of 7% but an adjusted EBIT margin of ~6.0% (below prior ~7% guidance), driven by late-stage rolling stock delays and complex platform ramp-ups (notably Germany). The decisive event was management withdrawing medium-term FCF targets and warning of a large near-term cash outflow, triggering a ~28–30% share price collapse to ~€16.6. New CEO Martin Sion now anchors the investment narrative around operational transformation and restored cash conversion.