Allwyn pairs concession-protected lottery cash flows with digital growth optionality, while 3.5x leverage and execution risks temper an attractive 11.6x earnings valuation.
Overview
Allwyn AG became the world’s second-largest publicly listed lottery and gaming operator after completing its combination with OPAP on March 24, 2026. The Swiss-redomiciled, Athens-listed group has a pro forma enterprise value of approximately €16 billion and operates long-term concessions and digital platforms across Europe, the UK, and North America. Its portfolio spans lotteries, sports betting, iGaming, PrizePicks DFS, and lottery technology. Q2 2026 preliminary unaudited Net Revenue rose 27.3% to €1,246 million and Adjusted EBITDA increased 29.0% to €458 million; organic growth was 5% and 9%, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 36.8%, while capex fell to €38 million and EBITDA less capex increased 43.3% to €420 million. Management reaffirmed FY2026 mid-to-high-20% revenue growth and approximately 37% margin guidance. At €12.10, shares trade around 11.6x forward earnings and 5.6x EV/Adjusted EBITDA, below peer benchmarks, with 3.5x leverage contributing to the discount. **The investment combines concession-backed cash flows with digital growth optionality.** Near-term catalysts include deleveraging, European digital expansion, PrizePicks growth, UK transition progress, and a €150 million buyback; the €1.00 annual dividend floor provides additional return support.