Aurelia Metals is converting a debt-free Cobar hub into a higher-throughput copper-gold growth platform, with FY26 execution supporting a probability-weighted AUD 0.59 five-year value.
Overview
Aurelia Metals is a cash-generating Australian polymetallic producer concentrated in the Cobar Basin, using a hub-and-satellite model in which underground Federation and Great Cobar feed the established Peak processing plant. Dargues moved to care and maintenance in August 2024, leaving management focused on Cobar throughput, recoveries, reserves and cost efficiency. FY26 demonstrated a step-change: revenue rose 39.8% to **AUD 480.24 million**, statutory EBITDA rose 55.2% to AUD 189.20 million, EBITDA margin expanded to 39.4%, and NPAT increased 69.1% to AUD 82.68 million. Processing rose 28% to 806kt, gold production reached 50.4koz and zinc production reached 28kt. The company was debt-free with AUD 143.90 million cash and reinstated a fully franked AUD 0.01 dividend. FY27 guidance targets 1.05–1.15Mt processed, 50–60koz gold and Cobar unit costs of AUD 300–330 per tonne versus AUD 369 in FY26. **Peak expansion and Great Cobar provide the central growth catalysts**, with copper-rich Great Cobar feed targeted from FY28. Trading near AUD 0.46 at approximately 3.4–3.5x trailing EV/EBITDA and 8.46–10.47x P/E, the report views the stock as undervalued, although execution, commodity-price and single-plant risks remain. Consensus is AUD 0.51, while the probability-weighted five-year target is AUD 0.59.