Arvinas offers a cash-backed, asset-light PROTAC royalty option with 72.8% base-case five-year upside, but clinical holds and partner execution keep the risk profile asymmetric.
Overview
Arvinas is a clinical-stage biotechnology company transitioning from internally funded development toward an asset-light royalty and licensing model built around targeted protein degradation. Its PROTAC technology recruits E3 ubiquitin ligases to permanently remove pathogenic proteins, potentially overcoming resistance more effectively than traditional inhibitors. **VEPPANU became the first FDA-approved PROTAC on May 1, 2026**, for ER+/HER2-negative, ESR1-mutated advanced or metastatic breast cancer after at least one endocrine-therapy line, validating the platform. Arvinas and Pfizer subsequently licensed exclusive global rights to Rigel, while Novartis holds rights to ARV-766. Q2 2026 revenue was $249.7 million, up 1,014.7% year over year, with $169.4 million of GAAP net income and $2.58 diluted EPS, but the result was driven by $112.6 million of Pfizer deferred-revenue acceleration, $62.5 million of Rigel-related revenue, and a $50.0 million Pfizer milestone. **The $567.9 million cash balance and only $8.40 million of debt provide runway into the second half of 2028.** The principal catalysts are ARV-806 and ARV-393 data in 2H and late 2026, ARV-102 toxicology and potential trial restart, and eventual royalty growth. At $9.26, the report sees a $16.00 base-case and $23.10 probability-weighted five-year value, balanced against partner dependence and clinical risk.