AerSale’s asset-backed aftermarket platform offers substantial recovery upside from $5.00, but the investment depends on converting inventory into cash and proving that MRO and proprietary retrofit growth can offset lumpy equipment sales.
Overview
AerSale (NASDAQ: ASLE) is an integrated aviation aftermarket company that acquires mid-life aircraft and engines, then sells, leases, or dismantles them for USM parts, alongside MRO services and proprietary retrofit systems. Its vertical platform offers USM at a stated 30%–50% discount to new OEM parts, and its FAA-certified AerAware and AerSafe products provide differentiated growth options. Secular fleet aging, OEM delivery delays, and engine durability problems support demand, but the company’s dependence on lumpy whole-equipment sales creates material earnings volatility. Q2 FY2026 revenue fell 33.9% year over year to $70.93 million; GAAP net loss was $5.57 million, adjusted EBITDA fell 87.9% to $2.21 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin contracted to 3.1% from 17.0%. Asset Management Solutions fell 51.3%, partly offset by 8.7% growth in TechOps and 50% growth in leasing revenue. **Shares at $5.00 trade below approximately $8.87 book value per share**, but cash was just $2.20 million and year-to-date operating cash outflow was $33.5 million. Management expects a stronger second half, supported by a contracted $35 million 737 sale, 17 engines, and AerSafe demand ahead of the November 2026 deadline. The five-year probability-weighted target is $10.24, contingent on execution and inventory conversion.