Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) Stock Analysis
ASR combines monopoly-like airport concessions, industry-leading $8.90 commercial revenue per passenger, and discounted valuation with near-term Cancun traffic and execution risks.
Overview
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste operates 16 airports across Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Colombia, complemented by US retail and food-service concessions at LAX, Chicago O'Hare, and JFK. Its concession-based network provides near-monopoly access to essential tourism and regional hubs, while the dual-till model combines regulated aeronautical fees with higher-margin commercial revenue. ASR's commercial revenue per passenger was $8.90, ahead of GAP's $6.20 and OMA's $4.40, and international passengers represented 51.5% of traffic. **Near-term results are under pressure:** 2Q26 passenger traffic declined 2.7% to approximately 17 million, core revenue excluding IFRIC 12 construction services fell 0.3% to Ps. 7,431.9 million, EPS was $4.38 versus a $4.92 consensus estimate, and adjusted EBITDA margin compressed from 67.6% to 62.0%. Nevertheless, reported revenue rose 9.9% to Ps. 9,579.0 million and USD revenue beat consensus by 5.8%. Valuation is attractive at 10.69x forward P/E and 8.93x trailing EV/EBITDA versus a 10.0x historical twenty-year average. **Catalysts include** CPC closing in 2H26, ITA savings, JFK Terminal 1 opening in 1Q27, and Cancun traffic stabilization. The five-year probability-weighted target is $477.82 versus a $263.00 modeled current price.