Black Hills offers defensive regulated cash flows plus merger and Wyoming hyperscale upside, with a probability-weighted five-year value of $92.43 versus a $73.39 baseline.
Overview
Black Hills Corporation is a pure-play regulated electric and natural-gas utility serving approximately 300,000 electric accounts and more than 1.05 million gas customers across the Rocky Mountain, Great Plains, and Midwest regions. Its franchise monopolies, pass-through gas-cost recovery, infrastructure riders, and predominantly residential and small-commercial customer base create defensive and visible cash flows. **The core growth platform is a $4.7 billion 2026-2030 capital plan**, supplemented by the pending all-stock NorthWestern Energy merger, which would create an $11.4 billion rate base, 2.1 million customers, and a diversified eight-state footprint. The combined company targets 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth. Q2 2026 adjusted EPS rose 42.1% to $0.54 and beat consensus by $0.13, despite revenue increasing only 3.1% to $452.8 million and missing estimates. Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.25 to $4.45. **Wyoming’s more-than-3-GW data-center pipeline is the key upside catalyst**: only 600 MW is modeled through 2030, while Google negotiations and $377 million of refundable advances provide optionality. At $73.39 in the scenario framework, the probability-weighted five-year target is $92.43.