Cboe pairs an SPX/VIX derivatives moat secured through 2051 with record 0DTE-fueled growth, but its premium valuation leaves meaningful downside if volumes or regulation turn against it.
Overview
Cboe Global Markets operates regulated trading, clearing, data, and market-access infrastructure across options, equities, futures, FX, and related services. Its franchise is differentiated by the proprietary SPX and VIX products, deep liquidity, and exclusive S&P DJI licensing rights extended through 2051. In Q2 2026, net revenue reached a record $731.6 million, up 25% year over year and above the $720.8 million consensus. GAAP diluted EPS was $3.35, up 50%, while adjusted diluted EPS rose 45% to $3.56 and beat the $3.49–$3.54 estimate range. Operating EBITDA margin expanded to 68.9%, and management raised 2026 organic net revenue growth guidance to the mid-to-high teens. **The core growth engine is options, particularly SPX 0DTE, supported by 24x5 access and data growth.** Shares traded around $314.98, at approximately 21.9x FY2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS, following a roughly 25% rise from end-June to mid-October. The report’s probability-weighted FY2030 share-price target is $447.88, with dividends modeled separately in scenario total value. Near-term catalysts include sustained options volumes, international-hours expansion, Data Vantage growth, and the licensing extension.