Cboe’s protected SPX and VIX monopoly, accelerating 0DTE volumes and cost restructuring support attractive long-term compounding despite cyclical and regulatory risks.
Overview
Cboe Global Markets is a global exchange and financial infrastructure operator spanning equities, derivatives, foreign exchange, clearing and market data. Its transaction fees are supplemented by recurring access, capacity, market-data and index-licensing revenues through Data Vantage. **The central investment case is Cboe’s legally protected monopoly in SPX, XSP and VIX derivatives**, reinforced by liquidity network effects and customer switching costs. Q2 2026 net revenue rose 25% year over year to $731.6 million, while adjusted EPS increased 45% to $3.56 and adjusted operating EBITDA rose 37% to $528.4 million; the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 72.2% from 65.8%. Options net revenue increased 30% to $473.9 million on 26% higher ADV, and Data Vantage grew 15% to $177.8 million. Management raised FY2026 organic net revenue guidance to “mid-to-high teens” growth and expects $100 million to $120 million of annualized savings from its realignment. At $304.19, the report’s probability-weighted five-year share-price target is $496.22, or $513.07 including dividends, implying an 11.02% annualized total return. Near-term catalysts include 0DTE adoption, Cboe Predicts, 23x5 equities trading and cost savings, although analysts remain at Hold with an average target near $312.