Carlyle pairs record $485 billion AUM and 47% FRE margins with a discounted 10.9x forward DE valuation, offering meaningful upside if fundraising, wealth-channel growth, and carry realizations deliver.
Overview
The Carlyle Group (NASDAQ: CG) is a global alternative asset manager with record AUM of $485 billion, operating across Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest. Its revenues combine relatively durable management fees on $334 billion of fee-earning AUM with more cyclical transaction fees, carried interest, and investment income. Approximately 85% of AUM is in long-duration or perpetual structures, supporting recurring fees; the firm also has $97 billion of dry powder and $2.4 billion of net accrued performance revenue, approximately $7 per share, that could convert to earnings as exits recover. Q2 2026 results were strong: DE was $1.07 per share versus $0.91–$0.94 consensus, FRE reached a record $358 million, up 11%, and segment revenue of $1.112–$1.120 billion exceeded expectations by more than 20%. Management’s 2028 targets are $1.9 billion annual FRE and at least $6.00 DE per share. **At $39.66, the shares trade at 10.9x 2026E DE, below peers**, despite a 3.53% forward dividend yield. Near-term catalysts are flagship fundraising, wealth and credit growth, and improving M&A exits; execution and macro risks remain material.