Cummins combines a defensible engine-and-aftermarket franchise with accelerating data-center power demand, supporting a probability-weighted five-year value of $744.23 versus $550.
Overview
Cummins is a global powertrain and power-generation company whose five segments span diesel, natural gas, electric and hybrid engines, emissions components, distribution, high-horsepower systems and Accelera clean technologies. FY2025 revenue was $33.7 billion, with approximately 60% from the United States and Canada and 40% international. Its competitive position rests on more than 90% share in North American medium-duty engines, approximately 40% in Class 8 engines, a global network of over 640 facilities and more than 13,000 dealers, and an aftermarket flywheel that supports recurring service revenue. **The financial trajectory is improving toward higher-quality Power Systems growth:** Q2 2026 sales rose 9.4% to $9.457 billion, Power Systems sales increased 19% to $2.3 billion, and operating cash flow reached a record $1.500 billion. Management raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to 10%–13% and EBITDA margin guidance to 18.0%–18.5%. **The central catalyst is AI data-center power:** revenue is targeted to rise from approximately $5.0 billion in 2026 to $9.0 billion in 2030, supported by $450 million of capacity investment. At approximately $550, valuation is elevated at 27.0x TTM GAAP P/E versus an 18.5x five-year average, but the report’s base case reaches $750.80 and its probability-weighted five-year target is $744.23.