California Resources Corporation (CRC) Stock Analysis
CRC combines a discounted, Brent-linked California cash engine with early CCS and power optionality, supporting an attractive risk-reward profile despite regulatory and commodity exposure.
Overview
California Resources Corporation is the largest independent California oil and gas producer, combining a low-decline conventional E&P portfolio with electricity, midstream, and emerging carbon-storage operations. Its approximately 149-154 MBoe/d production base is about 81% crude and receives Brent-linked pricing premiums because California imports more than 75% of its crude needs. **The core cash engine is improving:** Q2 2026 revenue rose 33% year over year to $1.297 billion, Adjusted EBITDAX was $338 million, and management reaffirmed full-year Adjusted EBITDAX guidance of $1.20-$1.30 billion. Adjusted EPS of $0.99 missed the $1.36 consensus because a 137,000-barrel inventory build deferred approximately $25 million of cash flow, not because of a permanent demand problem. CRC has delivered $103 million of annualized Berry synergies six months early and lowered maintenance-capital guidance to $450-$475 million. **The strategic upside is CTV**, which began commercial injection and can address California’s 2045 carbon-neutrality requirements. At approximately $55, CRC trades at about 4.8x adjusted EV/EBITDA and 4.7x price/FCF, below peer ranges, while analyst targets are $72.27-$75.92. The principal risks are regulation, oil prices, refinery concentration, and CCS execution.