Casella Waste Systems’ scarce Northeast landfill network supports durable pricing and a 171.72 USD five-year probability-weighted target, provided Mid-Atlantic synergies and margin recovery materialize.
Overview
Casella Waste Systems is a vertically integrated regional waste-services operator serving nine Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states through collection, transfer, permitted landfill disposal, recycling, organics and National Accounts. Its recurring municipal and commercial fees are supported by localized route density and scarce permitted disposal capacity, a particularly valuable advantage in the capacity-constrained Northeast. Q2 2026 revenue increased 16.85% to $543.75 million, beating consensus by $17.32 million; adjusted diluted EPS of $0.40 and Adjusted EBITDA of $123.20 million also exceeded estimates. Growth reflected 5.5% solid-waste pricing yield, 8.4% higher landfill volumes and acquisitions. However, the Adjusted EBITDA margin declined 87 basis points to 22.66%, while GAAP net income fell to $3.80 million as acquisition-related D&A and interest rose. FY2026 revenue guidance was raised to $2.090–$2.110 billion, but GAAP net income guidance was cut to $0–$6 million; EBITDA and free-cash-flow ranges were reaffirmed. At $82.77, the shares trade at 15.25x–16.0x EV/Adjusted EBITDA and roughly 4.0%–4.2% FCF yield. **The investment case rests on scarce landfill assets and pricing power; near-term catalysts are Mid-Atlantic synergies, $15 million of targeted G&A savings and RNG monetization.**