Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche S.p.A. (DAN.MI) Stock Analysis
Danieli’s €1.02 billion net-cash fortress, €6.04 billion backlog and green-steel technology underpin an attractive long-term opportunity despite cyclical EPC execution risks and flat near-term guidance.
Overview
Danieli is an Italian industrial engineering group with two complementary businesses: Plant Making designs and installs steelmaking equipment and turnkey plants, while ABS produces specialty steels and mining grinding media. In FY 2025/2026, revenue was €3,833.5 million, including €2,777.3 million from Plant Making and €1,056.2 million from ABS. Revenue fell 9% as large projects moved into lower-billing early engineering phases, but EBITDA held at €438.9 million and net profit rose 4.7% to €230.4 million, helped in part by FX gains. The €6,038 million backlog, up 12.1%, supports multi-year visibility; net cash increased to €1,019.7 million. Danieli’s Energiron DRI, MIDA micromills and Q-One systems position it for steel-industry decarbonization, a potential investment wave the report estimates at over $1.5 trillion. **The balance sheet and backlog provide meaningful downside protection**, though EPC execution and steel CapEx cycles remain risks. After a 13.5% post-results drop to €51.15, the shares trade at 4.5x EV/EBITDA and 1.01x book value. FY27 guidance is €3,900–€4,200 million revenue and €430–€450 million EBITDA. **The report’s probability-weighted five-year target is €69.63**, with order intake and project execution as near-term catalysts.