DraftKings’ leading sportsbook and casino platform is temporarily discounted by hold volatility and prediction investment, while a national super-app and expanding margins offer substantial five-year upside.
Overview
DraftKings is a North American digital gaming platform spanning online sportsbook, iGaming, DFS, lottery courier services, and CFTC-regulated event prediction markets. Its single-wallet architecture, leading app experience, SGP technology, and proprietary casino content differentiate it in a duopoly where DraftKings holds an estimated 32%–35% of OSB GGR, behind FanDuel’s 41%–44%. Q2 2026 was weak on reported results: revenue was $1,443.2M, down 4.6% year over year and 4.6% below consensus; Adjusted EBITDA fell 61.9% to $114.6M, and adjusted EPS of $0.09 missed $0.28. Unfavorable sports outcomes and promotional timing created about $80M of revenue drag, while underlying revenue grew 10%, Sports Consumer Volume rose 15% to $13.1B, and MUPs increased 9%. Management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $6.5B–$6.9B and Adjusted EBITDA of $700M–$900M, including roughly $1.0B of core sportsbook and casino EBITDA before $200M–$300M of Predictions investment. **The investment case rests on monetizing a large, underpenetrated market while the core platform scales profitably.** At $19.59, the stock trades at about 11.6x NTM EV/EBITDA, below cited historical peer multiples of 15x–18x. NFL-season volume, super-app rollout, and margin expansion are near-term catalysts.