Duke Energy pairs a $103 billion regulated investment plan with accelerating Sunbelt and data-center demand, offering durable 5%–7% EPS growth and a probability-weighted five-year target of $149.82.
Overview
Duke Energy is a large regulated electric and gas utility serving nearly 10.5 million combined customers across six electric jurisdictions and five gas territories. Its franchise model earns an authorized return on rate base, with electric operations the primary earnings engine. The company’s Southeast and Midwest footprint benefits from population migration and rising industrial and AI data-center power needs; it has 7.6 GW of signed data-center capacity and a $103 billion 2026–2030 capital plan expected to drive 9.6% annual rate-base growth. FY2025 revenue increased 6.19% to $32.2 billion, and adjusted EPS was $6.31; Q2 2026 adjusted EPS rose to $1.43 from $1.35 year over year. Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55–$6.80 and a 5%–7% annual growth target through 2030. At $121.33, DUK trades at 18.12x 2026 forward earnings and yields 3.58%. **The investment case is anchored in regulated earnings visibility and accelerating load**, though leverage and equity issuance temper per-share growth. **The five-year probability-weighted target is $149.82**, with near-term catalysts including data-center interconnections, rate recovery, and balance-sheet transactions.