Brinker International’s Chili’s turnaround is converting value-led traffic gains into strong cash earnings, unit-growth optionality, and an attractive five-year probability-weighted target of $307.05.
Overview
Brinker International operates Chili’s, Maggiano’s Little Italy, and the virtual It’s Just Wings brand across 1,635 locations, including 1,163 company-owned and 472 franchised units. Company-owned restaurant sales generate approximately 97.5% of revenue, giving the business substantial operating leverage, while franchise royalties add an asset-light component. Chili’s is the strategic engine: its $5.0 million AUV, $23.12 average check, five consecutive years of positive same-store sales, and 5.6% Q4 FY2026 same-store sales growth demonstrate share gains against QSR and casual-dining competitors. **FY2026 showed strong financial acceleration:** revenue increased 7.86% to $5.807 billion, net income rose 27.1% to $487.0 million, GAAP EPS grew 30.6% to $10.87, and free cash flow reached $557.5 million. Q4 restaurant margin expanded to 18.0%. **Near-term catalysts include FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $12.60–$13.40, 60–80 remodels, and accelerated unit development.** At $206.81, Brinker trades at 19.02x trailing GAAP earnings and 15.91x FY2027 midpoint EPS, with a 6.46% trailing FCF yield. The main counterweights are $1.76 billion of debt, discretionary consumer exposure, wage inflation, and remodel execution risk.