Equifax’s irreplaceable data moat and growing AI-driven efficiency can compound value, while mortgage cyclicality and potential Bimerge rules create meaningful near-term risks.
Overview
Equifax is one of the three principal U.S. consumer reporting agencies, operating a data- and technology-intensive model across Workforce Solutions, U.S. Information Solutions, and International. Its proprietary credit and employment datasets, especially The Work Number’s 223 million active records, support embedded, high-switching-cost services for lenders, employers, and government agencies. In Q3 2026, revenue rose 9.5% to $1.6925 billion, Adjusted EPS increased 10.8% to $2.26, and Adjusted EBITDA grew 10.9% to $560.2 million, with a 33.1% margin. Management trimmed 2026 revenue guidance to $6.646–$6.676 billion as mortgage rates reached approximately 7.5%, but reaffirmed Adjusted EPS of $8.45–$8.55, EBITDA of $2.116–$2.133 billion, and FCF above $1.0 billion. **The central attraction is a difficult-to-replicate data moat paired with expanding operating leverage:** management doubled its multiyear AI productivity target to $150 million. **The key near-term constraint is mortgage cyclicality**, although non-mortgage EWS and USIS remain strong. Shares rose to about $175.80 after earnings; the report’s probability-weighted five-year target is $368.59, with mortgage recovery, VantageScore gains, and buybacks as catalysts.