Essent Group combines disciplined mortgage underwriting, fortress capital, and aggressive buybacks with a five-year probability-weighted value target of $91.34 versus $64.41 today.
Overview
Essent Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based private mortgage insurance and reinsurance holding company that enables lenders and GSEs to extend low-down-payment mortgages while transferring credit risk away from their balance sheets. Its core mortgage insurance franchise holds approximately 16% of U.S. mortgage insurance in force and benefits from EssentEDGE pricing technology, high 84.7% persistency, disciplined underwriting, and extensive reinsurance. **Q1 2026 demonstrated resilient earnings:** revenue rose 5.83% year over year to $336.072 million, diluted EPS was $1.82 versus $1.69 a year earlier and $1.72 consensus, and the combined ratio improved to 34.8%. The balance sheet remains highly capitalized, with a 174% PMIERs sufficiency ratio, $1.6 billion of excess available assets, and debt-to-capital of 8.07%. At $64.41, valuation is modest at 9.18x trailing P/E, 8.90x forward P/E, and 1.05x book value. Near-term catalysts include lower rates, mortgage-volume normalization, $320 million of targeted 2026 P&C written premiums, buybacks, and title-platform execution. The five-year probability-weighted target is $91.34.