Ford’s profitable truck and commercial core funds a high-risk EV reset, creating asymmetric upside if the 2027 UEV platform restores margins.
Overview
Ford Motor Co is a global automaker executing the Ford+ restructuring through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit. The segmentation exposes a mature but cash-generative ICE and hybrid franchise, a loss-making EV operation, and a high-value commercial and software ecosystem. Ford generated $187.27 billion of revenue in FY2025, with the United States representing 2,105,000 wholesales and North America remaining the principal profit pool. **Ford Pro and Ford Blue are funding the EV transition:** in Q2 2026, Ford Pro produced $1.7 billion of EBIT on $17.8 billion of revenue, while Ford Blue delivered $1.1 billion of EBIT on $26.1 billion. Q2 revenue fell 3.8% year over year to $48.3 billion and GAAP net loss was $1.3 billion after $4.2 billion of special charges, but adjusted EBIT rose to $2.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.42 beat consensus by $0.09. Management raised 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.0–$11.0 billion and adjusted FCF guidance to $6.0–$7.0 billion. The investment case depends on Model e losses declining toward breakeven by 2029, successful 2027 UEV commercialization, and continued Ford Pro growth. The report’s probability-weighted five-year value is $21.32 versus a $14.90 baseline, although the consensus analyst target is only $15.15–$15.20.