FCX offers leveraged exposure to copper scarcity, Grasberg recovery and low-cost leaching growth, with near-term execution risk offset by a compelling long-term asymmetric return profile.
Overview
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) is a copper-focused mining company operating long-lived assets at Grasberg, Cerro Verde, Morenci, Bagdad, El Abra and other mines, with copper generating approximately 75% of FY2025 revenue and gold and molybdenum providing valuable by-product credits. Its competitive position reflects scale, approximately 60% of U.S. copper production, downstream refining, proprietary leaching technology and Grasberg’s unusually low cost structure. Q2 2026 revenue declined 7.3% year over year to $7.029 billion because of lower Grasberg operating rates, but net income rose 27.5% to $984 million and adjusted diluted EPS increased 37.0% to $0.74. Realized copper prices rose to $6.17 per pound from $4.42, while Grasberg throughput improved from 34,000 tons per day in April to 69,000 in June. **The central investment case is long-term copper scarcity combined with operational recovery and low-capital leaching growth.** Management reduced 2026 unit cash-cost guidance to $1.90 per pound, maintained 3.1 billion pounds of copper sales guidance and secured Grasberg rights beyond 2041. Near-term sentiment is restrained by a $4.8 billion 2027 capex forecast and recovery timing, but Barclays, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan retain targets of $80, $74 and $77, respectively.