FICO combines a 90%-penetrated credit standard, 148% SaaS retention, and 16.63% base-case IRR with substantial antitrust and leverage risks after its 2026 sell-off.
Overview
**FICO is a systemically embedded analytics franchise** whose Scores segment remains the benchmark in more than 90% of U.S. consumer lending decisions, while Software is transitioning toward a higher-quality cloud model. FY2025 revenue was $1.99 billion, comprising $1.169 billion from Scores and $822 million from Software, up from $1.32 billion in FY2021 and representing approximately 10.8% five-year sales CAGR. Q3 FY2026 revenue rose 26% to $674.2 million, non-GAAP EPS increased 42% to $12.18, and free cash flow rose 34% to $370.3 million. Platform ARR grew 62% to $413 million, with 148% dollar-based net retention. Management raised FY2026 guidance to $2.53 billion of revenue, $850 million of GAAP net income, and $42.43 of non-GAAP EPS. Valuation compressed after the stock fell 17.01% on July 30 to $1,139.54 and traded near $1,147.21, or approximately 23.8x projected FY2026 normalized earnings, versus a historical peak P/E of 86.41x in late 2024. **Near-term catalysts are continued Score 10T adoption, mortgage pricing, SaaS expansion, and debt reduction**, but antitrust investigations, VantageScore penetration, and $5.28 billion of long-term debt make the risk profile unusually important.