Fox’s live-media cash engine and Roku platform pivot create meaningful upside, but heavy acquisition leverage and regulatory execution make the risk/reward highly asymmetric.
Overview
Fox Corporation is a focused domestic media company built around live sports, Fox News, local broadcast distribution, and increasingly digital advertising and streaming rather than costly scripted entertainment. Its three revenue channels are distribution fees, advertising, and content licensing. Fiscal 2026 revenue increased 5.1% to **$17.13 billion**, Adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to a record **$3.91 billion**, and adjusted EPS grew 13% to $5.42. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 28% to $4.21 billion, advertising jumped 78% to $1.92 billion on the FIFA World Cup and Tubi, and Adjusted EBITDA increased 27% to $1.20 billion. The core business remains attractive: Fox News and live sports provide pricing power and cash flow while Fox avoids the margin destruction experienced by peers’ general-entertainment streaming strategies. The major catalyst is the proposed **$22 billion Roku acquisition**, expected to close in the first half of calendar 2027, which could create the largest U.S. FAST platform, approximately 11% of TV viewing, and $400 million of cost synergies plus more than $300 million of advertising synergies. At approximately $69.05, standalone valuation is 12.49x trailing normalized P/E, approximately 9.98x forward P/E, and 7.32x EV/EBITDA, but pro forma leverage and regulatory scrutiny create meaningful execution risk. The five-year probability-weighted target is $78.62, implying modest base-case upside but substantial high-case optionality.