National Fuel Gas offers discounted, vertically integrated gas exposure with a utility-scale Ohio catalyst, but near-term leverage and Utica execution temper the otherwise attractive long-term rerating case.
Overview
National Fuel Gas is a vertically integrated natural-gas company spanning upstream production, gathering, interstate transportation and storage, and regulated utility delivery. That structure gives it exposure to commodity upside while providing a regulated cash-flow floor and allowing multiple margins to be captured on the same molecule. Q3 FY26 was mixed: revenue increased 1.1% to $537.50 million, but adjusted EBITDA fell 3.8% to $248.53 million and adjusted EPS declined 6.1% to $1.54. EPS nevertheless beat the $1.43 consensus by 8.5%, aided by a $0.56/Mcf hedge gain, while production declined 7% to 104.3 Bcf. FY26 adjusted EPS guidance is $7.40-$7.60, a 9% midpoint increase over FY25’s $6.91. **The principal catalyst is the October 1, 2026 closing of the $2.62 billion Ohio utility acquisition**, which should double rate base to $3.2 billion, expand customers to 1.1 million, and lift regulated EBITDA contribution from 26% to approximately 34%. Shares near $82.48 trade at only 10.8x-11.4x trailing P/E, 11.26x forward P/E, and 6.7x EV/EBITDA versus substantially higher utility medians, although leverage and Utica execution explain part of the discount.