NFI has moved from crisis triage to durable expansion—turning a record $13B backlog and operational fixes (battery settlement, refinancing, vertical integration) into a clearer path to profitable growth.
Overview
Fiscal 2025 represents NFI’s transition from post-pandemic recovery to a more durable expansion setup. Revenue grew 15.8% to $3.615B while deliveries fell modestly, indicating successful backlog repricing and favorable mix, especially in zero-emission buses. Adjusted EBITDA rose 56.6% to $335.7M, and Q4 delivered record Adjusted EBITDA of $121.3M. IFRS results were pressured by large one-time items—most notably a $229.9M warranty provision tied to the XALT Gen3 battery recall and $137.3M of restructuring/impairment costs (Alexander Dennis)—masking improving underlying earnings (Adjusted net income $85.4M; FCF $67.8M). Balance sheet risk declined meaningfully: liquidity climbed to $445.8M, leverage fell to 3.49x, and refinancing extended maturities (revolver plus 9.25% second-lien notes due 2030). Strategically, leadership transitioned from Paul Soubry to John Sapp, with a four-pillar plan centered on operational excellence, market leadership, profitable growth, and resilient solutions (aftermarket/infrastructure). With a record $13B backlog and constructive analyst sentiment, the core question shifts from “can NFI recover?” to “how fast can it convert backlog into sustained, de-risked profitability?”