National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) Stock Analysis
NHI offers a balance-sheet-backed private-pay senior housing transformation, with a probability-weighted five-year value of $96.48 versus $75.30 today, but execution of its 1031 reinvestment is decisive.
Overview
National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT combining predictable triple-net leases, operationally leveraged SHOP communities, and mortgage-note interest income across 33 states and 42 operating partners. Its defining catalyst is the $560 million sale of 35 NHC facilities on July 1, 2026, which materially reduces exposure to government-reimbursed skilled nursing and redirects capital toward private-pay senior housing. Pro forma senior housing and SHOP represent 84.6% of investments and 79.4% of adjusted NOI, while skilled nursing is only 12.2%. Q2 2026 revenue reached $121.32 million, GAAP EPS rose 45.6% year over year to $1.15, and normalized FAD increased 5.8% to $61.6 million, although FFO of $1.19 missed consensus because of CFO-transition and deferred-tax costs. **The balance sheet is unusually strong**, with 2.3x pro forma net debt/Adjusted EBITDA, approximately $1.4 billion liquidity, and no significant maturities until 2028. **The investment case depends on deploying $334 million of 1031 proceeds** into higher-yield SHOP assets. At $75.30, the five-year probability-weighted target is $96.48, supported by a 5.0% base-case revenue CAGR and 16x FFO valuation.