NiSource combines regulated-monopoly durability with a 9%–10% EPS growth target and data-center upside, but leverage, execution, weather, and regulatory risks temper an otherwise attractive long-term opportunity.
Overview
NiSource is a fully regulated U.S. utility holding company operating Columbia Gas distribution businesses and NIPSCO in Northern Indiana. It serves approximately 3.3 million natural-gas customers and 500,000 electric customers across Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland, with monopoly service rights and revenue largely determined by approved tariffs. **The central investment attraction is the combination of defensive regulated cash flows and hyperscale data-center growth.** NiSource’s $28.6 billion 2026–2030 capital plan targets 9%–11% rate-base CAGR and management reaffirmed a 9%–10% adjusted EPS CAGR target through 2033, above the utility sector’s historical 5%–7% range. Q2 2026 was weak: revenue rose 2.4% to $1.28 billion, but adjusted EPS fell 27.3% to $0.16 versus a $0.23 estimate because of $42.8 million of pretax weather, labor, consulting, and severance adjustments. Nonetheless, first-half adjusted EPS rose 2.5% to $1.22 and 2026 guidance remained $2.02–$2.07. The shares trade near $40.62–$40.83, below the 200-day average of $45.16, while the forward non-GAAP P/E is 19.78x. The report’s probability-weighted five-year price target is $51.92, with catalysts including GenCo construction, pipeline conversion, rate cases, and $40 million of targeted cost savings.