Ryder’s Great Rebalancing is lifting contractual revenue, ROE and EPS, creating attractive long-term upside despite cyclical fleet, SCS execution and leverage risks.
Overview
Ryder is a leading North American port-to-door logistics provider serving more than 40,000 B2B customers through Fleet Management Solutions, Supply Chain Solutions, and Dedicated Transportation Solutions. Its business is becoming less cyclical: SCS and DTS now represent 60% of revenue versus 44% in 2018, while FMS has declined to roughly 40% of revenue from 56%. The company manages approximately 184,900 active FMS vehicles, 105 million square feet of warehouse space, nearly 800 maintenance locations, and approximately 343,000 annual cross-border freight movements. **Q2 2026 revenue rose 5% to $3.35 billion and comparable EPS increased 12% to $3.73**, marking the eighth consecutive quarter beating consensus. FY 2026 comparable EPS guidance increased to $14.40-$14.80, GAAP EPS guidance to $13.50-$13.90, ROE is expected at 18%, and free cash flow at $700-$800 million. The shares traded at 17.02x forward 2026 EPS of $14.67, a premium to historical asset-heavy averages but potentially justified by contractual mix, buybacks, and improved returns. Near-term catalysts include used-vehicle pricing stability, delayed SCS onboarding in late 2026 and 2027, and outsourcing ahead of EPA compliance requirements.