Super Group combines an 81% casino annuity, debt-free balance sheet, 30% EBITDA margins, and a probability-weighted 5-year value of $21.90 against a $13.79 share price.
Overview
Super Group is a digital, asset-light global gaming company built around Betway sports betting and Spin’s multi-brand online casino portfolio. Approximately 80%–81% of net revenue comes from casino, creating a more predictable annuity-like base, while sportsbook provides acquisition and cross-sell leverage. Africa contributed 46% of Q2 2026 revenue, with Canada at approximately 29%, Europe 19%, and the rest of world 6%. **Q2 2026 demonstrated accelerating operating leverage:** revenue reached a record $684 million, up 18.1% year over year; Adjusted EBITDA rose 29.9% to $204 million; margin expanded to 30.0%; and profit was $123 million versus a $3 million loss in Q2 2025. Monthly active customers increased 12.7% to 6.2 million, and cash rose 39.4% to $548 million. Management raised 2026 guidance to revenue above $2.6 billion and Adjusted EBITDA above $710 million. The stock trades at approximately 2.77x EV/Sales, 11.64x EV/EBITDA, and 19.40x P/E, with no debt. **The near-term catalyst set includes Alberta’s October 2026 regulated launch, Germany and Namibia launches, Premier League seasonality, and Manchester United branding;** the five-year probability-weighted value is $21.90 versus the reported $13.79 share price.