StubHub combines $598 million of trailing free cash flow and a leading ticket-resale network with deep valuation upside, but concentrated founder control, regulatory pressure, and event-driven growth make it a high-risk recovery investment.
Overview
StubHub Holdings runs a global, two-sided resale marketplace for live-event tickets, earning revenue mainly through buyer- and seller-side fees on GMS. Its buyer liquidity, professional-broker tools, FanProtect guarantee, Viagogo international footprint, and brand recognition support a co-leading global secondary-market position; 69%–73% of GMS has historically come from unpaid channels. Q2 2026 GMS rose 34% to $3.1 billion and revenue increased 33% to $573.06 million, helped by the FIFA World Cup. GAAP net income was $14.6 million, Adjusted EBITDA reached $106 million with an 18.0% margin, and TTM FCF was $598 million. Management raised FY2026 GMS guidance to $10.1–$10.3 billion but kept Adjusted EBITDA guidance at $400–$420 million, and expects H2 GMS growth to decelerate to low single digits. **The shares trade at 3.7x TTM P/FCF and 1.1x FY2026E sales**, with a $5.92 reference price, reflecting governance, regulatory, and insider-selling discounts. The five-year probability-weighted target is $13.54, though execution and downside risks are substantial. Near-term catalysts include sponsored-ad adoption, international growth, debt management, and clearer fee regulation.