Telecom Argentina combines post-TMA market dominance, expanding margins and fintech optionality with a $24.72 probability-weighted five-year value, offset by substantial Argentine FX and sovereign risk.
Overview
Telecom Argentina is Argentina’s primary integrated connectivity and digital-services provider, combining mobile, FTTH and HFC broadband, Flow pay-TV and OTT content, B2B ICT, fixed voice and the Personal Pay fintech ecosystem. Following TMA consolidation, it has approximately 38.9 million mobile accesses, 5.8 million fixed-broadband accesses, 3.8 million pay-TV subscribers and more than 1,500 active 5G sites, giving it unmatched scale and multi-service switching costs. **Financial momentum is improving sharply:** H1 2026 revenue rose 23.0% year over year to $3.40 billion, consolidated EBITDA margin expanded 580 basis points to 35.8%, standalone Telecom margin reached 39.7%, and pre-dividend FCF doubled to approximately $400 million. Net Debt/EBITDA fell to 1.36x from 1.74x. At approximately $14.00 per ADR, valuation is mixed on reported earnings but attractive on normalized cash generation: 5.6x EV/EBITDA versus a 6.8x peer average and 8.4x forward P/E versus a 11.2x sector median. Catalysts include further TMA synergies, real ARPU growth, potential sovereign improvement and Personal Pay scaling. The principal offset is Argentina’s FX, regulatory and debt risk. **The report’s base case targets $24.00 by 2031, while probability-weighted value is $24.72.**