TXNM Energy offers a regulated-growth utility franchise and a $61.25 Blackstone cash ceiling, but New Mexico approval risk dominates the merger-arbitrage risk/reward.
Overview
TXNM Energy is a regulated electric holding company operating PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas, serving approximately 800,000 homes and businesses. Its 24,996 miles of transmission and distribution infrastructure create exclusive, difficult-to-replicate natural-monopoly positions, while Texas load growth, data centers, industrial expansion, electrification, and clean-energy mandates support a large investment runway. **The near-term investment case is dominated by Blackstone Infrastructure Partners’ proposed $61.25-per-share cash acquisition**, whose outside termination date has been extended to May 31, 2027 after New Mexico regulators voided a $400 million PIPE financing. Q2 2026 revenue rose 9.2% to $548.6 million, GAAP diluted EPS increased to $0.64 from $0.22, ongoing EPS reached $0.58 from $0.25, and operating income climbed 69.6% to $123.3 million. FY2025 revenue was $2.166 billion, up from $1.247 billion in 2020, representing an 11.67% five-year CAGR. The stock trades near $57.60, below the merger value, with a consensus Hold and $61.25 target. The probability-weighted five-year value is $65.31, but regulatory closure, rather than operating results, is the key catalyst.