York Space Systems combines low-cost, flight-proven defense satellites and a $534 million cash cushion with an abrupt guidance reset, leaving substantial upside dependent on IDIQ conversion, supply-chain recovery, and margin execution.
Overview
York Space Systems is a Denver-based satellite manufacturer and mission-solutions provider founded in 2012, with revenue from fixed-price spacecraft contracts and lifecycle services including ground operations, telemetry and control, payload integration, and constellation software. Its standardized S-, LX-, and M-CLASS buses, VLEO offering, and vertically integrated propulsion, power, terminal, and ground capabilities position it between traditional defense primes and component-focused smallsat competitors. York is a key supplier to the SDA’s proliferated architecture and can produce more than 750 satellites annually. **The long-term demand case remains supported by defense-space spending and a reported $11.5 billion pipeline, but near-term execution has broken down:** FY2026 revenue guidance was cut approximately 33%, from a $570 million midpoint to $390 million, as IDIQ task orders slowed and supplier delays pushed deliveries into 2027. Q2 2026 revenue rose 10.0% to $92.5 million and gross margin recovered to 24.0%, yet the quarter recorded a $39.3 million GAAP net loss and negative $9.5 million adjusted EBITDA. After falling to $9.57, shares trade at about 2.29x LTM revenue, with $534.0 million cash and $148.1 million debt. The five-year probability-weighted target is $16.42, contingent on backlog conversion, margin recovery, and successful acquisition integration.