Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) Investment Analysis:
1. Executive Summary:
Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) stands as the dominant architectural force in the United States home service plan industry, a sector increasingly defined by the transition from legacy "warranty" models to integrated, technology-enabled home management platforms.[1, 2] The company’s core operational mandate is the mitigation of the financial and logistical volatility inherent in residential home ownership. By leveraging a portfolio of iconic brands—most notably American Home Shield (AHS) and the strategically vital 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty (2-10 HBW)—Frontdoor has constructed a defensive, recurring revenue engine that serves over 2.1 million members.[3] The enterprise is designed to capitalize on the widening "service gap" in the American housing market, where the median age of homes has reached 41 years, creating a structural tailwind for repair and maintenance demand.[1]
The company generates revenue through a multi-channel acquisition strategy that feeds a high-retention renewal book. The primary revenue streams include traditional home warranty subscriptions sold directly to consumers (DTC), plans bundled within residential real estate transactions (RE), and structural warranties sold to new-home builders.[4, 5] Furthermore, a rapidly expanding "Non-Warranty" segment—comprising high-ticket HVAC upgrades and on-demand services—represents the company’s most significant second-order growth initiative, aimed at increasing the "share of wallet" within its existing customer base.[6, 7] In the fiscal year 2025, Frontdoor delivered record-breaking financial results, with total revenue reaching $2.093 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA growing by 25% to $553 million.[3, 5]
Frontdoor’s core products are annual service contracts that cover the repair or replacement of up to 29 essential home systems and appliances, ranging from complex HVAC networks and plumbing systems to refrigerators and electrical grids.[4, 8] The value proposition is centered on "predictability." For a fixed annual fee, homeowners outsource the risk of catastrophic system failures, which can often exceed $7,000 for a single HVAC replacement, to Frontdoor's actuarial models.[9] Customers choose Frontdoor over fragmented regional competitors primarily due to its "Preferred Contractor" network of 17,000 independent firms, its proprietary technology suite—including the Frontdoor app and Streem AR remote diagnostics—and its unrivaled 50-year track record of service delivery.[1, 7]
The acquisition of 2-10 HBW, completed in late 2024 for $585 million, has fundamentally altered the company's competitive positioning by adding a structural warranty sales channel and creating a bridge to 19,000 home builders.[7, 10] This acquisition allowed Frontdoor to stabilize its total member count in 2025 and sets the stage for organic member growth to turn positive in 2026 for the first time since 2020.[2, 11] With a robust free cash flow of $390 million in 2025 and a disciplined capital allocation strategy that returned $280 million to shareholders via buybacks, Frontdoor represents a high-margin, capital-light entity positioned at the intersection of consumer services and residential infrastructure technology.[2, 3]
2. Business Drivers & Strategic Overview:
The strategic evolution of Frontdoor is predicated on the "Network Effect" of its service delivery platform. As the company scales its member base, it gains superior negotiating leverage with parts suppliers and contractors, which in turn lowers the unit cost of claims and allows for more competitive pricing or higher margin capture.[1] This flywheel is supported by three primary business drivers: the optimization of the core warranty subscription model, the scaling of the non-warranty high-ticket service segment, and the integration of the 2-10 HBW ecosystem.[2, 7]
Product and Service Detail for Investors
To understand the economic reality of Frontdoor, an investor must look beyond the "warranty" label and view the product as a "Home Systems Insurance and Service Orchestration" contract.
| Product Category |
Brands Involved |
Mechanism of Sale |
Economic Driver |
| Home Systems Warranty |
American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark |
Annual subscription; renewal-led |
High-margin recurring revenue; 79% retention [4, 12] |
| Structural Warranty |
2-10 Home Buyers Warranty |
B2B sales to 19,000+ new home builders |
Long-term (10-year) coverage; pipeline for systems upselling [4, 7] |
| HVAC Upgrade Program |
Frontdoor (Platform) |
Upsell to existing members during service calls |
High ticket ($5k-$10k); ~20% gross margins [6] |
| On-Demand Services |
Frontdoor App |
Per-incident fee for non-members or non-covered items |
Customer acquisition funnel; brand awareness [6, 10] |
The core warranty plan is a high-conviction purchase for homeowners because it effectively caps the cost of home ownership. When a covered system fails, the member pays a fixed "Service Call Fee" (typically between $75 and $125), and Frontdoor covers the remaining cost of labor and parts.[1] This model requires sophisticated risk-based pricing, which Frontdoor achieves through dynamic models that adjust for local labor rates and the specific age of the home’s systems.[1, 13]
Moat Analysis: Barriers to Entry and Sustainable Advantage
Frontdoor's competitive advantage is built upon a "moat" that is difficult for regional players or new "InsurTech" entrants to replicate.
- Contractor Network and Service Orchestration: The most significant barrier to entry is the curated network of 17,000 independent contractor firms and approximately 60,000 technicians.[1, 7] Frontdoor provides these contractors with a steady stream of "high-intent" jobs, reducing their marketing costs. In exchange, Frontdoor receives volume-based discounts on labor and priority service for its members.[1] The 84% "preferred contractor" utilization rate is a critical internal metric that drives margin expansion.[7, 12]
- Proprietary Data and Actuarial History: With over 50 years of data and 75 million service requests, Frontdoor has an unparalleled understanding of the failure rates of residential systems.[1, 14] This allows for a superior "Loss Ratio" management (typically 45-55%) compared to younger competitors who may underprice risk in pursuit of market share.[9]
- Brand Leadership and Trust: In a category defined by customer anxiety (e.g., a broken furnace in mid-winter), brand trust is the ultimate retention tool. American Home Shield maintains the highest levels of awareness and interest in the sector.[6, 7] This equity allows the company to maintain a 79% retention rate, providing a bedrock of cash flow that is largely decoupled from the volatile residential real estate cycle.[1, 12]
- Technological Differentiation (Streem AR): The integration of Streem AR allows technicians to remotely diagnose issues via a member's smartphone camera before arriving on-site. This technology reduces "no-fault-found" visits by approximately 15% and ensures the technician arrives with the correct parts, significantly lowering the "Cost of Services Rendered".[1]
TAM / Market Opportunity Analysis
The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Frontdoor is expanding as the company moves from a niche warranty provider to a holistic home services platform.
| Segment |
Market Size Estimate |
Context/Source |
| Traditional US Home Warranty |
$9.65 Billion (2025) |
Expected to reach $13.28B by 2030 (6.6% CAGR) [15, 16] |
| North American Protection Plans |
$18.5 Billion (2030) |
Includes extended appliance and electronics coverage [9] |
| US Home Services Industry |
$500 Billion |
The "Total Addressable" repair and maintenance market [14] |
| US HVAC Market |
Massive Opportunity |
Only 55,000 installs completed in a 2.1M member base [6, 7] |
The growth in the home warranty sector is driven by rising homeownership rates among Millennials (who are 2x more likely to purchase warranties than Boomers) and the increasing complexity of smart home systems.[9, 16, 17] Frontdoor’s current $2.09 billion revenue represents a significant share of the core warranty market, but only a fraction of the $500 billion spent annually on home maintenance.[14, 18]
Competitive Landscape: Market Share and Positioning
Frontdoor holds an estimated 45% share of the traditional US home warranty sector as of the end of 2025.[1]
- First American Home Warranty: The primary legacy rival. It captures a "disproportionate share" of the real estate channel by leveraging its parent company's title and realtor networks.[1]
- Choice Home Warranty: A value-focused player that has seen "measurable share gains" by targeting budget-conscious consumers with high-visibility marketing.[1]
- Assurant, Inc.: A newly emerged strategic threat. In early 2026, Assurant launched "Assurant Home Warranty" through a partnership with Compass International Holdings, reaching 300,000 agents.[19, 20] This move directly challenges Frontdoor’s real estate acquisition channel.
- Insurers and Digital Marketplaces: Companies like Angi and Thumbtack compete for on-demand repair dollars, while traditional insurers (State Farm, Liberty Mutual) are increasingly offering "equipment-breakdown" endorsements as low-cost add-ons to homeowners insurance.[1, 21]
Frontdoor is currently holding ground in its core segments through the 2-10 HBW acquisition while gaining ground in the high-ticket non-warranty space, where its "service trade" breadth and contractor network offer a distinct advantage over appliance-only protection providers like Assurant.[22]
3. Financial Performance & Valuation:
Frontdoor's 2025 financial performance was characterized by the successful integration of 2-10 HBW and a significant expansion of the "Non-Warranty" business, leading to record-breaking margins.
2025 Historical Performance & Key Metrics
The company outperformed nearly all internal and external benchmarks for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.
| Metric |
FY 2025 Value |
FY 2024 Value |
Change (%) |
| Total Revenue |
$2,093 Million |
$1,843 Million |
+14% [3, 5] |
| Gross Profit |
$1,157 Million |
$991 Million |
+17% [3, 5] |
| Gross Margin |
55.0% |
53.5% |
+150 bps [3, 5] |
| Net Income |
$255 Million |
$235 Million |
+9% [3, 5] |
| Adjusted EBITDA |
$553 Million |
$443 Million |
+25% [3, 5] |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin |
26.0% |
24.0% |
+200 bps [2] |
| Diluted EPS |
$3.42 |
$3.01 |
+14% [3, 5] |
| Free Cash Flow |
$390 Million |
$231 Million |
+69% [3] |
Revenue by Channel (FY 2025):
The renewal channel remains the anchor of the business, contributing over 70% of revenue. However, the "Non-warranty and other" segment saw the most explosive growth, increasing 66% to $128 million, driven by the HVAC and Moen programs.[3, 5, 11]
Important Financial Drivers for Valuation
- Conversion of EBITDA to Free Cash Flow: Frontdoor’s capital-light model is its most attractive financial attribute. Capital expenditures were only $31 million in 2025, allowing for a high conversion rate (low 60% range) of Adjusted EBITDA to FCF.[3, 22]
- Synergy Realization: The 2-10 HBW acquisition has been more accretive than expected. Management realized over $20 million in cost synergies in 2025, double the original $10 million target.[7, 22]
- Claims Cost Inflation Management: In 2025, Frontdoor successfully managed claims cost inflation at "low single digits" while using dynamic pricing to achieve 3% higher prices across its book.[2, 3]
- Share Count Reduction: The company repurchased $280 million worth of shares in 2025, representing roughly 7% of outstanding shares.[2, 3] This reduces the "denominator" for EPS and reflects management's belief that the stock is undervalued.
Current Valuation Analysis
As of late March 2026, Frontdoor's valuation reflects a market that is pricing in moderate growth but remains skeptical of the long-term housing recovery.
| Valuation Multiple |
FTDR (Current TTM) |
5-Year Average |
Sector Median |
| P/E Ratio (Trailing) |
15.4x - 16.4x |
22.1x |
11.4x [12, 23, 24] |
| Price/Sales |
1.8x |
1.7x |
0.9x [12, 25] |
| Price/Free Cash Flow |
9.7x |
14.7x |
10.9x [12] |
| EV/Adjusted EBITDA |
8.0x - 9.0x |
10.5x |
7.9x [12, 26] |
Valuation Connection to Model:
Frontdoor’s current P/E of ~15.4x is a significant discount to its historical 5-year average of 22.1x.[24] This "valuation gap" is largely due to the 2020-2023 period where multiples were elevated by pandemic-driven home services demand. However, current profitability (26% EBITDA margin) is structurally higher than historical norms. If the company achieves its 2028 target of $2.5 billion in revenue and maintains a 25% margin, it would generate approximately $625 million in Adjusted EBITDA.[6, 22] Applying a conservative 10x EV/EBITDA multiple suggests an enterprise value of $6.25 billion, approximately 50% above current levels.[12, 27]
4. Risk Assessment & Macroeconomic Considerations:
Frontdoor’s investment thesis is robust but faces several credible threats that could impair its long-term compounding ability.
Company-Specific Execution Risks
- Technical Integration of 2-10 HBW: The migration of the 2-10 HBW platform to Frontdoor's proprietary systems is slated for 2026.[7] Any significant downtime or loss of builder data could lead to churn in the high-value builder-to-consumer pipeline.
- Contractor Network Fragility: The "Preferred Contractor" model is the company’s primary margin lever. If Frontdoor fails to maintain positive relationships or if skilled trade labor shortages (HVAC, plumbing) continue to worsen, the company may be forced to use "Off-Network" contractors, which would compress gross margins significantly.[10, 28]
Competitive Risks
- Assurant/Compass Partnership: The entry of Assurant into the real estate channel is the most credible threat in years. By embedding their platform into the workflow of 300,000 agents at brands like Coldwell Banker and Sotheby's, Assurant could significantly reduce Frontdoor’s "First-Year" real estate acquisitions.[19, 20]
- Insurance Add-Ons: If homeowners insurance carriers successfully bundle "Equipment Breakdown" coverage for $50-$100 a year, the perceived value of a $600 Frontdoor plan could diminish, forcing a race to the bottom on price.[1, 29]
Customer Concentration or Demand Risks
- Consumer Sentiment and Discretionary Spend: While home warranties are often viewed as "necessary" budget protection, the sharp drop in consumer sentiment reported in March 2026 suggests that some homeowners may let their policies lapse to save on monthly costs.[30, 31]
- Geographic Concentration: A significant portion of revenue is generated in California, Florida, and Texas.[10] Regulatory changes or extreme weather events (e.g., massive hurricane seasons) in these specific states can disproportionately impact claim costs and loss ratios.
Regulatory or Legal Risks
- FTC Subscription Guidelines: The 2024 FTC guidelines on subscription transparency (e.g., "click-to-cancel") require more explicit disclosure to consumers. Failure to adapt could lead to regulatory fines and lower "passive" renewal rates.[1]
- State-Specific Insurance Licensing: Frontdoor operates as a service contract provider, but some states are considering reclassifying these as insurance products, which would increase reserve requirements and regulatory oversight.[1, 29]
Balance Sheet / Capital Allocation Risks
- Debt Servicing in a High-Rate Environment: Frontdoor has roughly $1.14 billion in long-term debt.[12, 32] While its net leverage is a healthy 1.4x, any significant earnings miss could rapidly escalate interest coverage concerns, especially given the "Debt to Equity" ratio of 4.85x.[32]
- Buyback Timing: Management returned $280 million to shareholders in 2025.[3] If the housing market enters a multi-year "deep freeze," this capital might have been better used for debt retirement or defensive M&A.
Macroeconomic Sensitivities
- Interest Rates and Housing Velocity: High mortgage rates have "frozen" the existing home sales market, a primary channel for first-year member acquisition.[30] A "lower for longer" interest rate environment is the primary drag on the company’s organic growth.[30]
- Skilled Labor Inflation (PPI): Hot inflation data, including a 0.7% surge in the February 2026 Producer Price Index, directly translates to higher labor costs for contractor repairs.[33]
| Risk Level |
Event |
Early Warning Sign |
Impact on Thesis |
| High |
Sustained Trade Labor Shortage |
PPI for Plumbing/HVAC > 8% |
Breaks the Preferred Contractor cost advantage. |
| Medium |
Assurant Market Share Gain |
Real Estate channel revenue < 0% growth |
Erodes the first-year acquisition funnel. |
| Low |
Weather Volatility |
$10M+ unfavorable claim development |
Temporary margin hit; not a long-term threat. |
STURDY BUT SENSITIVE TO MACRO
5. 5-Year Scenario Analysis:
The following scenario analysis projects Frontdoor’s potential total return through March 2031.
Base Case: The "Compounder" (Probability: 55%)
In this scenario, Frontdoor successfully realizes 2-10 HBW synergies and maintains its 45% market share. The housing market undergoes a modest recovery, with existing home sales growing at 3% annually. Non-warranty revenue scales to $350 million by 2031.
- Revenue Assumption: Grows at a 5% CAGR to $2.67 Billion by Year 5.[22, 34]
- Margin Assumption: Adjusted EBITDA margins stabilize at 26%.[2]
- Valuation Assumption: Exit multiple of 16.5x Trailing P/E, consistent with historical norms for high-quality specialized services.
- Share Count: Declines by 3.5% annually due to consistent buybacks.[3]
- 5-Year Outcome: Implied future share price of $95.20.
High Case: The "Services Platform" (Probability: 25%)
The HVAC upgrade program achieves widespread adoption (10%+ penetration of members), and the 2-10 HBW builder network becomes a massive pipeline for first-year conversions. Interest rates fall to 4.5%, triggering a housing boom.
- Revenue Assumption: Grows at an 8% CAGR to $3.07 Billion by Year 5.[2, 22]
- Margin Assumption: Expansion to 28% EBITDA margin due to AI-driven operational efficiencies.[1]
- Valuation Assumption: Exit multiple of 19.0x Trailing P/E as the market re-rates FTDR as a tech-platform.
- Share Count: Declines by 5% annually as higher FCF accelerates buybacks.[3]
- 5-Year Outcome: Implied future share price of $132.40.
Low Case: The "Stagflation" (Probability: 20%)
Housing velocity remains at record lows. Contractor labor inflation remains high (6%+), and Assurant captures significant market share in the real estate channel. Churn increases as consumers face sustained economic stress.
- Revenue Assumption: Grows at a 2% CAGR to $2.31 Billion by Year 5.[28, 35]
- Margin Assumption: Compression to 21% EBITDA margin.[28]
- Valuation Assumption: Exit multiple of 12.0x Trailing P/E, reflecting a "value trap" sentiment.
- Share Count: Stagnant as capital is preserved for debt servicing.[12]
- 5-Year Outcome: Implied future share price of $46.80.
5-Year Scenario Summary Table
| Scenario |
Revenue (Year 5) |
Adj. EBITDA Margin |
Exit P/E Multiple |
Implied Share Price |
5-Year Total Return |
Probability |
| High Case |
$3.07 Billion |
28.0% |
19.0x |
$132.40 |
+147% |
25% |
| Base Case |
$2.67 Billion |
26.0% |
16.5x |
$95.20 |
+77% |
55% |
| Low Case |
$2.31 Billion |
21.0% |
12.0x |
$46.80 |
-13% |
20% |
| Weighted |
$2.70 Billion |
25.5% |
16.2x |
$94.82 |
+76.4% |
100% |
Total Returns Calculation Formula:
$5-Year Return = \frac{Implied Future Price - Current Price}{Current Price} \times 100$
Given current price of $53.64.[36, 37]
RESILIENT COMPOUNDING POTENTIAL
6. Qualitative Scorecard:
Each metric is scored on a scale of 1–10.
- Management Alignment (Score: 9): Management compensation is heavily performance-based. 50% of PSU awards are tied to 3-year cumulative revenue and Adjusted EBITDA targets.[38] CEO Bill Cobb and other executives have substantial direct share ownership, and recent insider activity consists primarily of routine, formulaic equity settlements with tax-withholding dispositions rather than discretionary open-market sales.[13, 39, 40]
- Revenue Quality (Score: 9): High-quality recurring revenue with a 79.4% retention rate.[12] The transition to a DTC-led model (70% of revenue) has successfully reduced the company’s historic sensitivity to real estate cycles.[1]
- Market Position (Score: 8): Frontdoor is the clear market leader with 45% share.[1] It is currently winning in the non-warranty space but faces a credible new challenge from Assurant in the realtor channel.[19]
- Growth Outlook (Score: 7): The 2028 target of $2.5 billion in revenue is well-supported by the non-warranty and 2-10 HBW synergies.[2, 6] However, the 2026 outlook for 3-5% growth reflects the ongoing drag of a soft housing market.[3]
- Financial Health (Score: 8): Overall financial health is "Great".[11] FCF of $390M provides ample liquidity ($660M) to service the $1.14B debt.[22, 32] The low 1.4x net leverage ratio provides significant flexibility.[22]
- Business Viability (Score: 9): The durability of the business is high. The "choke point" is the contractor network, but Frontdoor’s scale and the $500B TAM for home services provide a long runway for relevance.[1, 14]
- Capital Allocation (Score: 9): Management has shown exceptional discipline by exceeding synergy targets on the 2-10 acquisition and returning 7% of shares to stockholders in a single year.[2, 3, 7]
- Analyst Sentiment (Score: 6): Sentiment is mixed with a consensus "Hold/Moderate Buy" rating.[23, 30] Analysts are bullish on margins but cautious on the first-year member acquisition decline (down 6% in DTC for Q4 2025).[5, 35]
- Profitability (Score: 9): Record 55% gross margins and 26% EBITDA margins place Frontdoor in the elite tier of consumer services companies.[2, 5]
- Track Record (Score: 8): Since the 2018 spin-off, Frontdoor has consistently met or exceeded EPS estimates (100% beat rate over the last 2 years).[8, 41]
Blended Score: 8.2 / 10
HIGH QUALITY GARP
7. Conclusion & Investment Thesis:
The investment case for Frontdoor Inc rests on its ability to leverage its massive scale and proprietary data to dominate the "essential home services" category. While often categorized as a cyclical play on the housing market, Frontdoor has successfully decoupled its revenue engine by growing its renewal book and expanding into non-warranty services.[1, 7] The 2025 results demonstrated that even in a low-volume housing environment, the company can generate significant free cash flow ($390 million) and expand margins to record levels.[3, 5]
Key catalysts for the next 12-24 months include the "re-ignition" of member growth, which is expected to turn positive in 2026, and the continued scaling of the high-margin HVAC upgrade program.[2, 7, 22] The integration of 2-10 HBW provides a unique "structural" moat that competitors like Choice Home Warranty cannot easily replicate.[10] While the Assurant entry into the real estate channel is a risk that requires monitoring, Frontdoor’s breadth of service and superior contractor utilization (84%) provide a significant defensive cushion.[12, 22]
From a valuation perspective, Frontdoor appears currently undervalued relative to its FCF yield and historical P/E averages.[12, 24] The company is effectively a "compounder in transition," moving from a legacy warranty firm to a tech-enabled home management leader. For investors looking for high-margin recurring revenue with a capital-light profile, Frontdoor represents a unique opportunity in the consumer discretionary space.
PLATFORM SCALE DOMINANCE
8. Technical Analysis, Price Action & Short-Term Outlook:
FTDR is currently experiencing significant technical pressure. As of late March 2026, the stock is trading at $53.64, well below its 50-day moving average ($60.05) and its 200-day moving average ($60.14).[23, 36, 37] The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold zone, and the stock recently touched a 52-week low of $35.61 before a partial recovery.[23, 42] Short-term sentiment is dampened by macroeconomic concerns regarding oil prices and consumer sentiment, but the long-term fundamentals remain constructive following a 13.1% revenue beat in Q4 2025.[30, 41]
OVERSOLD FUNDAMENTAL STRENGTH
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- FTDR: Frontdoor - Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com, https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/FTDR/detailed-earning-estimates
- Frontdoor Inc. (FTDR) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target 2026, https://public.com/stocks/ftdr/forecast-price-target
- Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) Stock Price & Latest News - March 2026 - Inside Arbitrage, https://www.insidearbitrage.com/symbol-metrics/FTDR
- Frontdoor - 8 Year Stock Price History | FTDR - Macrotrends, https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/FTDR/frontdoor/stock-price-history
- Frontdoor sets 2026 virtual meeting and pay vote | FTDR Proxy Statement - Stock Titan, https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/FTDR/def-14a-frontdoor-inc-definitive-proxy-statement-4a8e98b1674d.html
- Frontdoor (FTDR) CFO exercises 3718 RSUs with 1019 shares withheld - Stock Titan, https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/FTDR/form-4-frontdoor-inc-insider-trading-activity-db964d5f9f84.html
- Frontdoor SVP settles RSUs with tax withholding | FTDR Insider Trading - Stock Titan, https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/FTDR/form-4-frontdoor-inc-insider-trading-activity-ab162708b3f8.html
- Frontdoor's (NASDAQ:FTDR) Q4 CY2025 Sales Top Estimates - StockStory, https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/ftdr/news/earnings/frontdoors-nasdaqftdr-q4-cy2025-sales-top-estimates
- FTDR Stock The volume for Frontdoor stock increased for two consecutive days, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 282% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average - Tickeron, https://tickeron.com/news/85680652-the-volume-for-frontdoor-stock-increased-for-two-consecutive-days-resulting-in-a-record-breaking-daily-growth-of-282-of-the-65-day-volume-moving-average/