Fortis is the premium “sleep-well-at-night” regulated utility: a newly de-risked portfolio plus a record $28.8B capex pipeline aimed at compounding rate base (and dividends) through 2030.
Date: January 9, 2026 Subject: Equity Research & Strategic Analysis Ticker: TSX: FTS | NYSE: FTS Sector: Utilities (Regulated Electric & Gas) Current Price: CAD $71.58 Market Capitalization: CAD ~$36.0 Billion
As of January 9, 2026, Fortis Inc. presents a compelling investment case defined by a strategic transition toward a lower-risk, pure-play regulated transmission and distribution (T&D) utility model. Following the successful divestiture of its Caribbean assets in Belize and the Turks and Caicos Islands in late 2025, Fortis has streamlined its portfolio to focus heavily on North American regulated energy delivery.
The core of the investment thesis rests on the execution of the newly announced $28.8 billion 2026-2030 Capital Plan, the largest in the corporation's history.
Valuation dynamics have shifted favorably as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes. With the Canadian 10-Year Government Bond yield settling around 3.38% and the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield forecast to hover near 3.75% throughout 2026, the "cost of capital" headwinds that plagued the sector in 2023-2024 have largely abated.
The Transmission Supercycle: A primary driver for Fortis is its ownership of ITC Holdings, the largest independent transmission company in the United States. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) Long Range Transmission Planning (LRTP) Tranche 1 projects are moving into heavy construction phases, contributing significantly to the $28.8 billion capital plan. These investments benefit from Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) formula rates, which minimize regulatory lag and provide transparent returns on equity (ROEs). Furthermore, the emergence of data center load growth in the Midwest and Arizona provides an "above and beyond" growth wedge not fully captured in the baseline capital plan.
Regulatory Clarity: The regulatory overhang that characterized previous years has largely dissipated. Significant achievements in 2025 included the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) adopting a formula rate policy statement, modernizing the regulatory framework for UNS Energy, and the New York Public Service Commission approving a three-year rate plan for Central Hudson with a 9.5% ROE.
Financial Resilience: Fortis enters 2026 with a robust balance sheet, maintained by a funding strategy that prioritizes cash from operations (59%) and debt (30%) over dilutive equity issuance (11%).
The outlook for Fortis Inc. is categorized as "Constructive Accumulation." The company is entering a period of high execution intensity regarding its capital plan but does so with a de-risked portfolio and a supportive interest rate backdrop. While the stock price has appreciated approximately 18.6% over the last year, reflecting the market's recognition of these improved fundamentals
Fortis Inc. has undergone a decades-long transformation from a small electric utility in Newfoundland to a North American energy delivery giant. The defining strategic maneuver of late 2025—the sale of Belize Electricity and FortisTCI—marks the final chapter in this evolution.
The divestiture aligns the company's risk profile with its premier valuation. Small island economies are inherently more volatile, facing outsized impacts from hurricanes and tourism-dependent economic cycles. By exiting these markets, Fortis has removed a "tail risk" from its portfolio. The proceeds from these sales have been recycled into the U.S. and Canadian capital programs, effectively swapping higher-risk tropical cash flows for lower-risk, regulated North American rate base growth. This capital recycling is a hallmark of prudent capital allocation, preventing the need for external equity raises that would dilute current shareholders.
As of 2026, the portfolio is effectively 99% regulated utility assets.
Fortis operates through a decentralized model, allowing local management teams to navigate their specific regulatory and political landscapes while leveraging the parent company’s financial strength. The portfolio is geographically diverse, mitigating the risk of adverse regulatory decisions in any single jurisdiction.
ITC is the growth engine of Fortis. As an independent transmission operator, it owns the high-voltage wires that transport electricity across seven states in the U.S. Midwest. Unlike distribution utilities that deal with retail customers and billing, ITC’s customers are load-serving entities. This B2B model, combined with FERC regulation, is highly attractive. FERC regulation typically allows for "forward-looking" rate setting (formula rates), meaning ITC projects its costs for the coming year and sets rates to recover them immediately, followed by a "true-up" later. This eliminates the "regulatory lag"—the time gap between spending money and getting it back—that plagues state-regulated utilities.
The strategic driver for ITC is the MISO Long Range Transmission Planning (LRTP) initiative. As the U.S. generation mix shifts from coal to wind and solar, the grid must be physically rewired. Wind farms in Iowa or Minnesota need massive new transmission lines to move power to load centers in Chicago or Detroit. ITC is the incumbent builder for many of these lines. The 2026-2030 capital plan allocates a significant portion of the $28.8 billion total to these transmission projects.
UNS Energy, primarily through Tucson Electric Power (TEP), serves a rapidly growing demographic in Arizona. The state is a beneficiary of domestic migration and industrial onshoring. In 2026, a key driver for UNS is the "Springerville conversion." TEP is in the process of transitioning its generation fleet from coal to cleaner resources, including natural gas and renewables.
Crucially, the regulatory environment in Arizona has improved. The ACC's adoption of a formula rate policy statement in late 2024 was a watershed moment.
FortisBC is the primary energy delivery company in British Columbia, providing both electricity (in the interior) and natural gas (coastal and interior). The strategic challenge and opportunity here is the "Gas to Clean Energy" transition. British Columbia has some of the strictest climate policies in North America. FortisBC is navigating this by pivoting its gas network toward Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) and hydrogen, as well as focusing on LNG infrastructure for export and marine bunkering.
The "Tilbury LNG Storage Expansion" and "Eagle Mountain Pipeline" are major capital projects included in the 5-year plan.
Central Hudson (New York): After a turbulent period involving billing system issues and regulatory scrutiny in 2023-2024, Central Hudson has stabilized. The August 2025 rate order settled a three-year plan with a 9.5% ROE.
FortisAlberta: As a pure-play distribution wire owner (no generation, no retail supply), FortisAlberta is a low-risk, steady cash flow generator. It operates under a performance-based regulation (PBR) model, where beating efficiency targets results in higher earnings.
Eastern Canada: Newfoundland Power and Maritime Electric continue to provide stable, if slow-growing, cash flows. These utilities are mature and serve as a reliable source of dividends for the parent company.
While the $28.8 billion capital plan is the baseline, management has identified several "upside" opportunities that could drive growth beyond the 7% rate base target.
Data Center Load: The proliferation of AI and cloud computing is driving unprecedented demand for power. ITC’s service territory in the Midwest and UNS Energy’s territory in Arizona are prime locations for data center development due to land availability and power access. The "Big Cedar Load Expansion" project at ITC is an early indicator of this trend.
Tilbury LNG Phase 2: While the current plan includes storage expansion, a broader expansion of the Tilbury facility for LNG marine bunkering (fueling ships) and potentially small-scale exports represents a multi-billion dollar opportunity in the late 2020s.
MISO Tranche 2: The current capital plan heavily weights MISO LRTP Tranche 1. Tranche 2, which focuses on the Midwest sub-region, is currently in the planning stages. If these projects are approved and accelerated, they could add billions to the capital plan in the 2028-2030 timeframe.
Fortis Inc.'s financial performance in late 2025 demonstrated the resilience of its diversified model. The third quarter of 2025 was particularly notable for a significant earnings beat.
Q3 2025 Earnings Recap:
Fortis reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.87, surpassing the consensus analyst estimate of roughly $0.61 by a wide margin (approx. 42%).
Rate Base Growth: The continuous compounding of the rate base at ITC and U.S. utilities contributed to higher foundational earnings.
Cost Management: Timing of operating and maintenance (O&M) expenses favored the quarter.
Asset Sale Adjustments: The quarter included a favorable adjustment of $32 million related to the disposition of FortisTCI.
Revenue Miss: Despite the earnings beat, top-line revenue of $2.07 billion fell short of the $2.2 billion forecast (-5.91%).
Full Year 2025 Estimates:
Analyst consensus for the full fiscal year 2025 has coalesced around an EPS of $3.48.
Valuing a regulated utility like Fortis requires a triangulation of multiple methodologies: Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiples relative to peers and history, and Dividend Discount Models (DDM) given the yield-focused investor base.
As of January 9, 2026, Fortis trades at CAD $71.58.
Forward P/E (2026 Estimate): With a consensus 2026 EPS forecast of $3.59
Trailing P/E: Based on TTM earnings, the ratio is approximately 21.3x.
Historical Context:
Historically, Fortis has traded in a P/E range of 17x to 23x. The current valuation of ~21.3x is near the upper end of its 5-year average (approx. 20.0x).
Peer Benchmarking Table:
Analysis:
Vs. Emera: Fortis trades at a premium to Emera (21.3x vs 18.8x). This is justified by Fortis’s superior balance sheet and lower payout ratio. Emera has struggled with high floating-rate debt exposure and capital constraints, forcing asset sales and creating dividend growth uncertainty. The market awards Fortis a higher multiple for its "sleep well at night" attribute.
Vs. Hydro One: Fortis trades at a discount to Hydro One (21.3x vs 24.8x). Hydro One is unique; it is a government-backed monopoly with no foreign currency risk and virtually zero volume risk. Investors pay a "super-premium" for this safety. Fortis, while safe, introduces FX volatility and U.S. regulatory complexity, explaining the discount.
Given Fortis's predictable dividend growth, a DDM offers a check on intrinsic value.
Assumptions:
Next Year Dividend (D1): $2.66 (Assuming ~4% hike on current annualized).
Terminal Growth Rate (g): 5.0% (Midpoint of 4-6% guidance).
Cost of Equity (Ke): 8.5% (Risk-Free Rate 3.5% + Beta 0.45 * Equity Risk Premium 11%). Note: Using a slightly higher ERP to be conservative.
Calculation: Price = $2.66 / (0.085 - 0.050) = $2.66 / 0.035 = $76.00 CAD.
The DDM suggests the stock is currently trading slightly below its intrinsic value ($71.58 vs $76.00), implying a roughly 6% undervaluation. This aligns with the "Buy/Hold" consensus and supports a constructive view on the stock.
Fortis maintains a strong investment-grade credit profile, a non-negotiable requirement for a company with a $28.8 billion spending habit.
Credit Ratings: S&P (A-), Moody's (Baa3), DBRS (A low).
Liquidity: As of late 2025, Fortis had significant liquidity available through its credit facilities to fund near-term capex.
Leverage: The company targets a Debt-to-Capital ratio in the 50-60% range. The sale of the Caribbean assets improved the net debt position. Management has explicitly stated that the funding plan for the 2026-2030 period will rely primarily on debt (30%) and cash from operations (59%), with only modest equity requirements (11%).
The scale of the 2026-2030 capital plan—$28.8 billion—requires granular analysis to understand the quality of earnings it will generate. This represents a $2.8 billion increase over the previous 5-year outlook, signaling management's confidence in the depth of its investment pipeline.
The allocation of capital reveals the strategic priorities of the company. The plan is heavily weighted toward the United States and specifically toward transmission.
Table derived from capital expenditure distribution percentages and total plan value.
Management highlights that 21% of the plan consists of "Major Capital Projects," while the remaining 79% is smaller, granular sustainment capital.
Why this matters: Large "mega-projects" (like nuclear plants or massive hydro dams) are notorious for being over budget and behind schedule, leading to write-offs. Fortis’s major projects are largely transmission lines and pipeline upgrades—projects with well-understood engineering risks. The high percentage of granular sustainment capital (replacing poles, wires, meters) is extremely low risk; regulators rarely deny recovery for keeping the lights on.
Key Project - MISO LRTP (ITC): These are transmission lines mandated by the grid operator (MISO) to ensure system reliability. Because they are regionally cost-allocated, the risk of cost recovery is minimal compared to a merchant project.
Key Project - Eagle Mountain Pipeline (FortisBC): This pipeline expansion is linked to the Woodfibre LNG export terminal. It is a critical piece of infrastructure for Canada's energy export strategy, ensuring high regulatory support.
How will Fortis pay for $28.8 billion in new assets?
Cash from Operations (59%): This is the retained earnings after dividends are paid. The high retention rate highlights the cash-generative nature of the mature utilities in the portfolio.
Debt (30%): Fortis will issue debt both at the utility level (secured) and the holding company level (unsecured). The stabilizing interest rate environment in 2026 makes this debt cheaper than it would have been in 2024.
Equity (11%): This is the most sensitive part for shareholders. Fortis plans to raise this primarily through its Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) and potentially an At-The-Market (ATM) program.
The single biggest risk factor for a utility is "Regulatory Risk." In 2026, the landscape for Fortis is largely benign to positive.
Arizona (UNS Energy): The adoption of the "Formula Rate Policy Statement" by the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) in late 2024 cannot be overstated.
New York (Central Hudson): New York is a challenging environment due to high political focus on customer bills. However, the August 2025 settlement (3-year plan, 9.5% ROE) essentially bought Fortis three years of peace.
FERC (ITC): The 50 basis point adder for RTO membership remains in place. While there are periodic rumblings at FERC about reducing allowed ROEs for transmission, the overwhelming need to build grid infrastructure to meet Biden-era and subsequent administration climate/reliability goals creates a "regulatory put." FERC cannot afford to slash returns when it needs trillions of dollars of private capital to enter the sector.
British Columbia (FortisBC): The BCUC is a sophisticated regulator. The 2025-2027 rate framework decision
Alberta (FortisAlberta): Alberta operates strictly under PBR. The generic cost of capital (GCOC) proceedings are predictable. The economic recovery in Alberta, driven by stabilizing oil prices, supports load retention.
Despite the bullish thesis, several material risks must be monitored.
While rates have stabilized, they remain elevated compared to the 2010-2020 decade.
Refinancing Risk: Fortis has debt maturing every year. If 10-Year yields were to spike back to 5% (Low Case Scenario), the interest expense would eat into EPS growth.
Inflation: High inflation pressures O&M costs. If inflation runs at 4% but regulators only allow a 2% increase in O&M recovery, shareholders eat the difference. The move to formula rates in AZ and PBR in Canada helps mitigate this, but does not eliminate it.
Wildfires: This is the new existential threat for utilities. Fortis has exposure in Arizona (dry, hot) and British Columbia (dense forests). A major wildfire attributed to Fortis equipment could lead to massive liabilities (though Canadian law is currently less punitive than California's "inverse condemnation"). Mitigation involves aggressive vegetation management and system hardening—costs that increase customer bills.
Severe Weather: Hurricanes in the U.S. East Coast (Central Hudson impacted by remnants) and ice storms in Canada can cause massive outages. While restoration costs are usually recoverable, the "regulatory lag" in getting that cash back can strain liquidity.
The $28.8 billion plan is complex.
Supply Chain: Sourcing high-voltage transformers and substation equipment is currently a global bottleneck. Delays in receiving equipment can push project in-service dates back, delaying the start of earnings (AFUDC accumulation helps, but cash flow is delayed).
Permitting: Building new transmission lines (ITC) requires crossing private land. Landowner opposition and "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) activism can stall projects for years.
To quantify the range of outcomes, we model three scenarios based on macro variables and execution success.
Narrative: The $28.8B plan is executed on time. Interest rates remain stable. Fortis delivers its 6% EPS growth.
2030 EPS Est: ~$4.50.
Terminal Multiple: 20x.
2030 Stock Price: ~$90.00.
Total Return: ~8-9% annualized (Capital Apprec. + Dividend).
Verdict: Solid, low-risk accumulation.
Narrative: A mild recession leads to Fed rate cuts (yields drop to 3%). Simultaneously, the AI infrastructure buildout accelerates, forcing MISO to approve Tranche 2 early. Fortis captures massive transmission spend.
2030 EPS Est: ~$4.80.
Terminal Multiple: 23x (Multiple expansion due to low rates).
2030 Stock Price: ~$110.00.
Total Return: ~12-14% annualized.
Verdict: Outperformance vs S&P 500.
Narrative: Inflation resurges. Bond yields hit 5.5%. Regulators, facing angry voters, refuse rate hikes. Wildfires in BC cause a liability scare.
2030 EPS Est: ~$3.90.
Terminal Multiple: 16x (Multiple compression).
2030 Stock Price: ~$62.00.
Total Return: ~2% annualized (Dividend offsets capital loss).
Verdict: Capital preservation only; loss of purchasing power against inflation.
Date of Analysis: January 9, 2026
The technical setup for Fortis Inc. confirms the fundamental view of stability with consolidation.
Price vs Moving Averages: The stock price ($71.58) is currently trading above its 200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA), which sits at approximately $71.12.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI is reporting in the 34-48 range.
MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence is slightly negative (-0.16).
Support & Resistance:
Resistance: The psychological ceiling is $72.00, followed by the 52-week high of $74.00.
Support: Immediate support is at the 200-DMA ($71.12). A break below this would target the psychological $70.00 level.
Conclusion: The chart portrays a stock in a "bull flag" or consolidation pattern within a broader uptrend. The proximity to the 200-DMA offers a technically sound entry point with a tight stop-loss below $70.00.
Fortis Inc. stands as a beacon of predictability in an uncertain market. The company’s strategic transformation into a North American regulated pure-play is complete, and the focus now shifts to the execution of the record $28.8 billion capital plan.
For the investor, Fortis offers a proposition that is rare in the equity markets: Reliability. In a world of technological disruption and geopolitical chaos, the demand for electricity transmission and distribution is one of the few constants. Fortis has positioned itself to capture the value of this demand through its ownership of premier assets like ITC and its strategic footprint in growth regions like Arizona.
While the valuation at ~21x P/E requires a long-term horizon to justify, the quality of the underlying franchise supports this premium. The de-risking of the portfolio through Caribbean divestitures and regulatory wins in the U.S. has materially improved the risk-adjusted return profile.
Final Investment Verdict: Fortis Inc. is a Core Portfolio Holding. It is not a stock to trade for quick gains, but an asset to own for wealth preservation and compounding income. As of January 9, 2026, we initiate/reiterate a BUY rating for income-focused and conservative growth portfolios, with a 12-month price target of $77.00 CAD.
End of Report.
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