Nexstar Media: Market Leader in Local Broadcasting Poised for Contrarian Upside Amidst Secular Industry Challenges
Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) stands as the largest local television station owner and operator in the United States, positioning it as a leading diversified media company with a significant and highly cash-generative national footprint. The company's core assets include a portfolio of over 200 owned or partner television stations across 116 markets, reaching approximately 220 million people. This expansive local presence is complemented by national media assets, including a 77.1% controlling interest in The CW Network, the national news network NewsNation, and a 31.3% ownership stake in the profitable TV Food Network.
The central investment thesis for Nexstar is built upon a fundamental market dislocation. The company operates a legacy broadcast business that, while facing secular headwinds from the decline of linear television, generates immense and durable free cash flow. Current valuation multiples suggest the market is pricing the company for a rapid terminal decline, seemingly underestimating the resilience of its primary revenue streams and the potency of its capital allocation strategy. This analysis posits that the market is overlooking the durability of high-margin distribution (retransmission) fees and political advertising revenue, the transformative financial impact of the pending acquisition of TEGNA Inc., and management's proven ability to create per-share value through aggressive share repurchases and a growing dividend.
Nexstar's operations are primarily organized into two segments. The Broadcasting segment, comprising the vast portfolio of local television stations and their associated digital platforms, serves as the company's economic engine, driving the substantial majority of revenue and profitability. The Networks and Digital segment, which includes national assets like The CW and NewsNation, is currently in an investment phase. These assets represent potential long-term growth options but also act as a near-term drag on consolidated profitability.
The outlook for Nexstar is contingent upon the successful execution of its strategic initiatives, chief among them the integration of TEGNA, and its ability to navigate the well-understood risks of subscriber erosion and advertising cyclicality. A detailed, fundamentals-driven scenario analysis suggests a probability-weighted valuation that indicates the company may be materially undervalued at its current market price, offering a potentially compelling opportunity for investors with a long-term horizon.
Nexstar's financial performance and strategic direction are dictated by a unique interplay of stable, contractual revenues, highly cyclical but powerful advertising streams, and a corporate strategy centered on industry consolidation and shareholder returns. Understanding these components is critical to assessing the company's long-term value proposition.
Nexstar's revenue is primarily derived from three distinct sources: distribution fees, advertising, and digital operations. Each possesses unique characteristics and faces different opportunities and challenges.
This revenue stream consists of fees paid by Multichannel Video Programming Distributors (MVPDs)—such as cable, satellite, and virtual streaming providers—for the right to carry Nexstar's local broadcast signals. These fees, governed by multi-year contracts, provide a stable and predictable base of high-margin revenue. The core dynamic influencing this segment is the tension between two opposing forces: the secular decline in the number of traditional pay-TV subscribers, commonly known as "cord-cutting," and the contractual rate increases Nexstar negotiates upon the renewal of these agreements. The company's SEC filings identify the inability to renew these distribution agreements on favorable terms as a material risk to its business.
A central pillar of Nexstar's strategy and bull thesis is the argument that broadcast television remains significantly "under-monetized" relative to its viewership share. Local broadcast stations, particularly affiliates of the "Big 4" networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC), command a large and essential portion of total television viewing but receive a disproportionately small share of the fees consumers pay in their monthly cable bills compared to many cable-only networks. This value gap provides Nexstar with substantial leverage in negotiations, enabling it to demand significant per-subscriber rate increases. To date, these rate hikes have been sufficient to more than offset the modest annual decline in subscriber numbers, allowing the company to maintain stable to growing total distribution revenue.
Advertising revenue is more volatile and can be divided into two key categories: core advertising and political advertising.
Core Advertising: This represents revenue from local and national businesses and is highly correlated with the health of the broader economy. Recent financial reports reflect the challenging macroeconomic environment, with core advertising revenue showing softness. For the three months ended June 30, 2025, total advertising revenue decreased by 9.0% year-over-year, primarily due to cyclical factors but also reflecting ongoing market softness.
Political Advertising: This is a powerful, high-margin, and recurring revenue driver that creates a significant biennial cash windfall for the company. Revenue surges in even-numbered years corresponding with mid-term and presidential election cycles. The absence of this high-margin revenue was a primary factor in the year-over-year revenue decline reported in mid-2025. This cyclicality is a structural advantage and a key competitive moat. Broadcast television remains the single most important and effective medium for political campaigns seeking to reach a broad, geographically targeted, and demographically reliable voting bloc. This creates a durable and predictable source of cash flow that underpins the company's capital allocation strategy.
This segment includes revenue generated from Nexstar's portfolio of digital assets, such as its local TV station websites, The Hill, and NewsNationNow.com. The company reports that these properties collectively rank as a Top 10 U.S. digital news and information property based on user activity. However, the long-term strategic value of this segment is a point of contention. While the company highlights its digital reach, some external analyses suggest the segment may be underperforming, characterized by low user engagement and a lack of a coherent strategy to attract younger audiences, who are increasingly consuming news on platforms like TikTok and Instagram. This raises questions about whether the digital portfolio can become a meaningful driver of future growth or if it will remain a secondary asset, reinforcing the investment thesis's reliance on the value of the legacy broadcast operations.
Nexstar's strategy is focused on leveraging its industry-leading scale to maximize cash flow from its core operations while pursuing transformative M&A and making calculated investments in national media assets.
The pending acquisition of TEGNA Inc. is the single most important strategic initiative for Nexstar. In August 2025, the company announced a definitive agreement to acquire TEGNA in a $6.2 billion all-cash transaction, representing a 31% premium to TEGNA's prior stock price.
Strategic Rationale: The primary goal is to increase scale, creating a local media powerhouse better positioned to compete with "Big Tech and Big Media". The combined entity would own stations in 132 of the nation's 210 television markets, reaching an unparalleled 80% of U.S. television households. This consolidation is designed to maximize negotiating leverage with networks and MVPDs and enhance its value proposition for advertisers.
Financial Impact: The transaction is expected to be highly accretive. Management projects approximately $300 million in annual run-rate net synergies from operational efficiencies and revenue opportunities. The deal is forecast to be more than 40% accretive to Nexstar's standalone adjusted free cash flow within the first year after closing. However, this will come at the cost of increased financial leverage, with the company's net leverage ratio expected to rise from approximately 3.19x to around 4.0x at the time of closing.
Primary Risk: The most significant hurdle is regulatory approval. The transaction is subject to review by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the Department of Justice. To comply with national ownership caps, the FCC may need to adjust its rules, a process that introduces considerable uncertainty and is a key focus for investors.
These national media assets represent a strategic effort to diversify beyond local broadcasting and capture a larger share of the national advertising market. The CW, acquired in 2022, is undergoing a strategic pivot away from expensive, youth-focused scripted programming toward more cost-effective live sports (such as the Pac-12 partnership) and unscripted content to drive the network toward profitability. The company has already demonstrated progress, reducing year-over-year losses at the network. NewsNation is being built as a non-partisan national news alternative.
From an investment perspective, these assets are best viewed as high-risk, high-reward call options. The market currently ascribes little to no value to them given their unprofitability. If management succeeds in its turnaround and growth plans, it would represent significant, unpriced upside. The primary risk is that the ongoing investment required could divert capital from the more certain returns of share buybacks and dividends.
Nexstar and its industry peers are in the process of rolling out ATSC 3.0, or "NextGen TV." This new broadcast standard offers the potential for enhanced picture quality, interactive features, and, most importantly, data broadcasting capabilities. Industry estimates suggest this technology could create up to $15 billion in new annual revenues for the broadcast industry by 2030 through services like targeted advertising and wireless data delivery. This remains a distant and uncertain opportunity but represents a free, long-term call option on the future of the broadcast spectrum.
Nexstar's primary competitive advantage is its unmatched scale as the nation's largest owner of local television stations. This scale provides superior negotiating power in all key relationships—with television networks for affiliation agreements, with MVPDs for retransmission consent fees, and with national advertisers. It also allows the company to realize greater cost synergies from acquisitions than smaller competitors, reinforcing its role as the industry's leading consolidator.
An analysis of Nexstar's recent financial performance reveals a business model characterized by high profitability and powerful cash flow generation, albeit with significant cyclicality tied to political advertising cycles. This financial strength, juxtaposed with low valuation multiples, forms the crux of the potential investment opportunity.
Nexstar's financial results clearly illustrate the biennial rhythm of its business. The fourth quarter of 2024, benefiting from a major election cycle, saw the company post record net revenue of $1.49 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $628 million, showcasing the immense profitability during peak political years.
In contrast, the second quarter of 2025, a non-political period, showed a different picture. Net revenue was $1.23 billion, a decrease of 3.2% from the prior-year period. This decline was driven almost entirely by a 9.0% drop in advertising revenue, which the company explicitly attributed to the absence of political spending in an odd-numbered year. Operating income and net income for the quarter fell by 11.3% and 14.2%, respectively, demonstrating the high degree of operating leverage in the business model, where modest revenue changes can have an outsized impact on profitability.
Critically, distribution revenue remained flat during the second quarter of 2025. The company noted that annual contractual rate escalators and growth in virtual MVPD subscribers were sufficient to offset the impact of traditional MVPD subscriber attrition. This result provides a crucial proof point for the bull thesis, demonstrating that, for now, the company can successfully navigate the pressures of cord-cutting to maintain its most stable revenue stream.
Nexstar operates with a significant, but manageable, level of debt. The company ended 2024 with a net leverage ratio of 2.91x and total debt of approximately $6.4 billion. While this is a substantial debt load, it is supported by the company's robust and predictable free cash flow generation. The pro-forma leverage of approximately 4.0x following the potential TEGNA acquisition will elevate financial risk and will be a key metric for investors to monitor, with management's ability to de-lever post-transaction being paramount.
Profitability metrics are strong. Over the last twelve months, the company has generated an EBITDA margin of 33.0% and a high Return on Equity (ROE) of 28.2%. While the ROE figure is somewhat inflated by the high debt level, a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 14.1% provides a more sober and still impressive measure of the company's capital efficiency.
The cornerstone of Nexstar's financial profile is its prodigious free cash flow (FCF). Over the last twelve months, the company generated $1.25 billion in FCF, which translates to an impressive $41.49 per share. This powerful cash flow is the engine that funds the company's entire capital allocation strategy, including M&A, debt reduction, dividends, and share repurchases.
Nexstar currently trades at valuation multiples that appear low on both an absolute and historical basis, suggesting market skepticism about the long-term sustainability of its business model.
Key Multiples: The stock trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 10.3x, a Price-to-Free Cash Flow ratio of a mere 4.9x, and an Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of approximately 7.4x. The P/FCF multiple is particularly noteworthy, implying a free cash flow yield of over 20%.
Context and Sentiment: While the current P/E ratio is slightly above its 5-year average of 8.9x, it remains low in absolute terms. There is a significant disconnect between this market valuation and the prevailing sentiment among sell-side analysts. The consensus rating is a "Strong Buy," with an average price target of approximately $221, and some targets extending to $250. Furthermore, third-party Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, while dependent on their inputs, suggest the potential for significant undervaluation, with some calculating an intrinsic value north of $340 per share. This wide gap between the market's pricing and fundamental analysis suggests that investors who believe in the durability of Nexstar's cash flows may find the current valuation attractive.
The following table provides a comparison of Nexstar's valuation and financial metrics against its closest peers in the broadcasting and media industry.
Note: Peer data is estimated based on publicly available information and industry averages for comparative purposes. Sources:.
The comparison highlights Nexstar's compelling valuation, particularly on a price-to-free cash flow basis, where it trades at a significant discount to larger, more diversified peers. While its leverage is in line with the industry, its superior cash generation and shareholder return profile (dividend yield) stand out.
An investment in Nexstar Media Group requires a clear-eyed assessment of the significant risks facing the company and the broader media industry. These risks range from profound secular shifts in media consumption to cyclical economic pressures and regulatory hurdles.
Secular Headwinds (Cord-Cutting): The most significant long-term risk and the foundation of the bear thesis is the persistent decline in traditional pay-TV subscribers. This trend directly threatens Nexstar's high-margin distribution revenue stream. While the company has successfully offset subscriber losses with contractual rate increases to date, an acceleration in the rate of cord-cutting could overwhelm its pricing power, leading to an eventual decline in this critical revenue source. This risk is explicitly acknowledged in the company's SEC filings.
Advertising Cyclicality and Sensitivity: A substantial portion of Nexstar's revenue is derived from advertising, which is highly correlated with GDP growth and consumer confidence. In an economic downturn, businesses typically reduce their advertising budgets, which would directly and negatively impact Nexstar's core advertising revenue. The business model's high degree of operating leverage, with a large base of fixed costs, means that even a small decrease in revenue can lead to a much larger percentage decline in operating income and cash flow.
TEGNA Acquisition Risk: The transformative TEGNA acquisition, while strategically compelling, introduces a multi-faceted set of risks:
Regulatory Risk: There is no guarantee that the transaction will receive the necessary approvals from the FCC and the Department of Justice. The deal's scale pushes the boundaries of current media ownership regulations, and its approval may depend on a favorable interpretation or modification of those rules, which is a significant uncertainty. A failure to close the deal would be a major setback to the company's consolidation strategy.
Integration Risk: Even if the deal is approved, Nexstar faces the challenge of integrating TEGNA's 64 television stations. Failure to achieve the projected $300 million in annual synergies would undermine the financial rationale of the transaction and could disappoint investors.
Financial Risk: The acquisition will be financed with debt, increasing Nexstar's net leverage to approximately 4.0x at closing. This elevated leverage would increase the company's financial vulnerability, particularly if the transaction were to close just ahead of an economic recession.
Digital Strategy Execution: There is a risk that management's strategy for its digital assets is not viable. Critics suggest a lack of a clear plan to compete for younger audiences and a history of underinvestment in digital platforms. If the digital segment fails to become a meaningful growth driver, it validates the "melting ice cube" thesis, where the company's value is tied exclusively to the managed decline of its legacy broadcast assets.
Interest Rates: As a company with a significant debt load, Nexstar is sensitive to changes in interest rates. Higher rates increase the cost of servicing its existing floating-rate debt and make it more expensive to refinance its debt maturities in the future.
Inflation: Persistent inflation can exert upward pressure on operating costs, including employee wages and programming rights. While some of this may be passed on through higher advertising rates, a significant mismatch could compress margins.
Political Environment: The political climate is a unique macroeconomic factor for Nexstar. A highly polarized and contentious political landscape, while socially divisive, is a net positive for the business, as it fuels record levels of campaign spending and drives the company's highly profitable political advertising revenue during election years.
This section presents a five-year financial projection for Nexstar Media Group under three distinct scenarios: Base Case, High Case, and Low Case. The objective is to derive a fundamentals-based valuation range for the company's stock by the end of fiscal year 2030. The price targets are a direct output of the underlying financial assumptions and are not extrapolated from the current share price.
The projections are built from the ground up, with the following core assumptions driving the model:
Revenue Streams: Projections for Distribution, Core Advertising, and Political Advertising are modeled separately to reflect their unique drivers.
TEGNA Acquisition: The timing and financial impact of the TEGNA acquisition are a key variable across scenarios.
Margins and FCF: Adjusted EBITDA margins and Free Cash Flow (FCF) conversion rates are projected based on revenue mix, synergies, and capital expenditure needs.
Capital Allocation: A waterfall approach is used for FCF deployment: 1) fund the dividend, 2) de-lever the balance sheet to a target ratio, and 3) use residual cash for share repurchases.
Terminal Valuation: A terminal EV/EBITDA multiple is applied to the projected 2030 Adjusted EBITDA to derive a terminal enterprise value. The share price is then calculated by subtracting net debt and dividing by the projected number of shares outstanding.
This scenario represents the most probable outcome, assuming competent execution and a continuation of current industry trends.
Fundamentals: The TEGNA acquisition is assumed to close in mid-2026. Distribution revenue experiences a net annual decline of -0.5%, reflecting a -4.0% annual subscriber loss partially offset by +3.5% in annual rate increases. Core advertising grows at a modest 1.5% annually. Political advertising follows its biennial cycle with strong showings in 2026 and a record year in 2028. The CW network achieves breakeven profitability by 2028.
Financials: The company realizes $250 million of the $300 million in potential TEGNA synergies by 2028. FCF is used to de-lever to a target of 3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA by 2029, with the remainder used for share repurchases.
Valuation: A terminal EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5x is applied in 2030, a slight compression from today's levels to reflect ongoing secular pressures.
This scenario envisions successful strategic execution combined with a more favorable operating environment.
Fundamentals: The TEGNA acquisition closes in early 2026, and the full $300 million in synergies are realized by 2027. Subscriber declines are more moderate at -2.5% annually, offset by stronger pricing. A healthier economy supports 3.0% annual core advertising growth. The CW reaches profitability a year earlier, in 2027.
Financials: Faster de-leveraging allows for more aggressive share repurchases earlier in the forecast period, significantly reducing the share count.
Valuation: The market rewards strong execution and improved growth prospects with a terminal EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5x in 2030.
This conservative scenario assumes the materialization of key risks.
Fundamentals: The TEGNA acquisition is blocked by regulators, and no synergies are realized. The rate of cord-cutting accelerates, with subscriber declines of -6.0% annually. A mild recession causes core advertising to decline for two years before a slow recovery. The CW continues to generate modest losses through the forecast period.
Financials: All available FCF after the dividend is dedicated to debt paydown to protect the balance sheet; no share repurchases are executed.
Valuation: Increased secular pressures and a failed M&A strategy lead the market to assign a lower terminal EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.5x in 2030.
The table below summarizes the key financial outputs for each scenario from 2025 to 2030. All figures are in millions of USD, except for per-share data.
The final table translates the financial projections into a 5-year total return forecast and a probability-weighted price target.
Based on this analysis, the probability-weighted price target for Nexstar Media Group in five years is approximately $443 per share. This outcome suggests that the company's shares may be significantly undervalued at current levels, with a favorable asymmetry between the potential upside in the Base and High cases versus the more limited downside in the Low Case.
Cash Flow Arbitrage
This scorecard provides a qualitative assessment of Nexstar across ten critical factors, offering context beyond the quantitative analysis. Each factor is scored on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is poor and 10 is excellent.
Management Alignment: 7/10 Nexstar exhibits strong top-level alignment, primarily through its founder, Chairman, and CEO, Perry Sook. Mr. Sook maintains a significant personal stake in the company, owning approximately 6.7% of the shares, a position valued at over $400 million. This "skin in the game" is a powerful incentive to manage the company for long-term shareholder value. However, this positive is tempered by two factors. First, executive compensation is very high, with the CEO's total compensation package reaching approximately $36 million, which is well above market averages for similarly sized companies. Second, there has been a pattern of consistent, albeit often pre-planned, insider selling by executives, which can be interpreted as a less-than-fully-bullish signal.
Revenue Quality: 6/10 The quality of Nexstar's revenue is a mixed bag. The distribution revenue stream is of high quality, based on long-term contracts with predictable cash flows, though it faces the secular headwind of cord-cutting. Conversely, core advertising revenue is of lower quality, being highly cyclical and sensitive to economic conditions. The standout is the political advertising revenue, which, despite its biennial cyclicality, is a unique and exceptionally high-quality source of recurring, high-margin cash flow. The overall quality is average, but the company's ability to convert this revenue into free cash flow is very high.
Market Position: 9/10 Nexstar is the undisputed market leader in U.S. local television broadcasting. The company has methodically grown its market share over two decades through a disciplined and aggressive M&A strategy, consolidating a fragmented industry. Its portfolio of over 200 stations gives it unparalleled scale and negotiating leverage. The pending acquisition of TEGNA would further cement this dominant position, creating a company with a near-insurmountable lead in the local media landscape.
Growth Outlook: 4/10 The company's organic growth prospects are challenged. The core broadcasting business is mature and, ex-political cycles, is not a growth engine. Future growth is almost entirely dependent on two highly uncertain factors: large-scale M&A, exemplified by the TEGNA deal, and the successful execution of its speculative ventures in national media, namely the turnaround of The CW and the scaling of NewsNation. Without successful M&A, the company is likely to be a low-to-no-growth entity.
Financial Health: 6/10 Nexstar operates with a high degree of financial leverage. The company currently carries over $6 billion in debt and will become more levered post-TEGNA, with a pro-forma net leverage ratio of around 4.0x. This level of debt creates financial risk. However, this risk is substantially mitigated by the company's massive and predictable free cash flow generation, which provides ample capacity to service its debt obligations. While some metrics like the Altman Z-Score of 1.7 might flag a risk of distress, this is less indicative for a stable, high-FCF business model like Nexstar's.
Business Viability: 7/10 The core local broadcast model, while in a state of managed decline, is far from obsolete. Its central role in providing local news, weather, and sports, combined with its unique position as the primary medium for political advertising, provides a long and durable tail. The long-term viability of the enterprise depends on management's ability to prudently manage the decline of its legacy assets while intelligently reinvesting the resulting cash flows into new opportunities and shareholder returns.
Capital Allocation: 8/10 Management has demonstrated a clear, consistent, and shareholder-friendly approach to capital allocation. The company has a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders through a rapidly growing dividend and an aggressive share repurchase program, which reduced the outstanding share count by 8.9% in 2024 alone. Furthermore, its historical use of leverage to fund highly accretive M&A has been the primary driver of long-term shareholder value creation.
Analyst Sentiment: 9/10 Sentiment from the sell-side analyst community is overwhelmingly positive. The consensus rating for the stock is "Strong Buy," a view shared by a large contingent of covering analysts. Published price targets are consistently above the current market price, indicating a widespread belief on Wall Street that the company's shares are undervalued.
Profitability: 8/10 Nexstar's business model is exceptionally profitable. The company consistently generates high Adjusted EBITDA margins, typically in the 33% to 40% range, and delivers a high return on equity of over 28%. The business possesses significant operating leverage, which means that while profitability is sensitive to top-line fluctuations, the baseline level of profitability is excellent.
Track Record: 9/10 The company has an outstanding long-term track record of value creation. CEO Perry Sook founded the company in 1996 with a single television station and, through decades of shrewd deal-making and operational excellence, has built it into the undisputed industry leader. This history of successful execution and shareholder value creation is a significant qualitative positive. The stock's long-term performance reflects this track record.
Overall Blended Score: 7.3/10
Disciplined Consolidator
Nexstar Media Group presents a compelling, if contrarian, investment case. The company is a dominant market leader operating within an industry that is in a state of secular decline. This dynamic creates significant cognitive dissonance for many investors, leading to a valuation that appears to inadequately reflect the company's underlying financial strength and strategic positioning.
The core investment thesis is that Nexstar is currently undervalued because the market is overly focused on the long-term decline of linear television viewership while underappreciating three critical, value-creating factors. First is the durability and pricing power of its dual cash-flow engines: contractual distribution revenue and recurring political advertising revenue. Second is the transformative financial impact of the pending TEGNA acquisition, which stands to be massively accretive to free cash flow per share. Third is the proven effectiveness of management's aggressive capital return program, which uses the company's immense cash flow to systematically reduce the share count and increase the dividend, driving per-share value growth irrespective of the industry's trajectory.
An investment in Nexstar is therefore a bet that the cash flow generated from its legacy assets, amplified by industry consolidation, can be harvested and returned to shareholders at a rate that outpaces the secular decline in the enterprise value of the core business.
Key catalysts that could unlock this value include the successful regulatory approval and closing of the TEGNA acquisition, continued strength in political advertising spending in the upcoming 2026 and 2028 election cycles, tangible progress toward achieving profitability at The CW network, and the continued execution of the company's robust share repurchase program.
Conversely, the primary risks to this thesis are a regulatory blockage of the TEGNA deal, a sudden and sharp acceleration in cord-cutting that overwhelms the company's pricing power in retransmission negotiations, a deep and prolonged advertising recession that severely impacts core revenues, or a failure to realize the projected synergies from the TEGNA integration, which would leave the company with a compromised balance sheet.
Value in Decline
As of late 2025, the stock of Nexstar Media Group is exhibiting a constructive technical posture. The price is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range of $141.66 - $223.36, indicating strong recent performance. Importantly, the stock is trading comfortably above its 200-day moving average of approximately $172, a widely followed indicator of a positive long-term trend. The short-term outlook is overwhelmingly dictated by news flow and sentiment surrounding the pending TEGNA acquisition, with any updates from the FCC or DOJ likely to be the primary driver of significant price movements.
Constructive Trend
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