Noble Corporation offers asymmetric offshore-recovery exposure: near-term Brazil disruption weighs on earnings, but premium fleet, $6.8 billion backlog and 2027 repricing support substantial upside.
Overview
Noble Corporation is a global offshore drilling contractor whose core value proposition is deploying high-specification floaters and jackups for IOC and NOC exploration and development programs. Floaters generated $2.57 billion, or approximately 78% of FY2025 contract revenue, with average utilized dayrates of $402,700, while jackups generated $539.5 million at approximately $185,340 dayrates. Following the September 2024 Diamond Offshore acquisition and earlier Maersk Drilling consolidation, Noble owns the industry’s largest active fleet of seventh-generation dual-BOP drillships, supporting premium rates and customer stickiness. **The near-term financial picture is weak:** Q2 2026 revenue declined 8.4% sequentially to $720 million, Adjusted EBITDA fell to $212 million with a 30% margin, and adjusted EPS of $0.01 missed consensus by 94.7%. Brazil suspensions caused a $43 million revenue impact and contributed to lower 2026 guidance of $2.8-$2.9 billion revenue and $850-$925 million Adjusted EBITDA. **The medium-term setup is stronger:** the $6.8 billion backlog, expected second-half 2027 earnings inflection and $1.3 billion annualized EBITDA target support a recovery thesis. At 1.93x P/S and 7.70x EV/EBITDA, valuation reflects cyclical volatility, while catalysts include Brazil resolution, backlog repricing and buybacks.